Happy Holidays

Just wanted to wish everyone happy holidays. Im gonna be heading to Florida for a week and then directly to las vegas so expect some interesting content when I get back!

How disgusting is this...

FullTiltPoker Game #1406993864: Table Buckwood (6 max) - $5/$10 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:40:15 ET - 2006/12/14
Seat 1: Iplay2ManyHands ($1490)
Seat 2: gma01 ($205.50)
Seat 3: seekerzero ($1012)
Seat 4: razorbacker ($1189)
Seat 5: what a donk ($1276)
Seat 6: Smart LAG ($1370)
razorbacker posts the small blind of $5
what a donk posts the big blind of $10
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Iplay2ManyHands [7d 7h]
Smart LAG raises to $20
Iplay2ManyHands raises to $75
gma01 folds
seekerzero folds
razorbacker folds
what a donk folds
Smart LAG calls $55
*** FLOP *** [7c Ts 3s]
Smart LAG checks
Iplay2ManyHands bets $130
Smart LAG raises to $430
Iplay2ManyHands raises to $1295
Smart Lag calls $1295, and is all in
Iplay2ManyHands shows [7d 7h]
Smart LAG shows [Tc Kh]
*** TURN *** [7c Ts 3s] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [7c Ts 3s 3d] [Th]
Smart LAG shows a full house, Tens full of Threes
Iplay2ManyHands shows a full house, Sevens full of Tens
Smart LAG wins the pot ($2740) with a full house, Tens full of Threes

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 3s 7c

cards  win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
7d 7h  974  98.38    16   1.62    0  0.00  0.984
Tc Kh   16   1.62   974  98.38    0  0.00  0.016




Well... I guess variance had to hit me at some point,
I went on a heater and won about $1000 in two days
playing 0.50/1.00 6 max on full tilt. I really would
have wished that variance could have hit me on a
smaller pot...
I can beat that game, I know it... I just
need to not get crushed by brutal beats when I take shots.
Last time I took a shot at
that level, I lost a pot of the same size all
in preflop with pocket aces vs. jacks, of
course J on the turn... Shoot me.

Trial By Fire

I just finished a run of 250 "10+1, 10-handed" SnGs on Ultimate Bet. I tracked my results, taking note of place finished, and amount won. I've used this information to calculate average amount won, average place, etc.

Places:
Total 1sts: 33
2nds: 28
3rds: 39
4ths: 42
5ths: 29
6ths: 30
7ths: 22
8ths: 18
9ths: 6
10ths: 3

Average Place: 4.33
Average Won: $13

So out of the 250, I cashed in exactly 100 or 40%.

I played in sessions of 25, of these I won in 7/10 and lost in 3/10.

Throughout the experiment I finished 4th more than anything else, and I largely attribute this to marginal situations where I was jockeying for a cash. I tend to take more risks when there are four left because I want to win. I feel like its a waste to play for 3rd. That being said, there were more than a few times that I may have made mistakes in these situations and could have had more cashes if I was a bit more careful.

For example, I had a situation today where I had AQ and 4000 chips (15000 total chips in play). There was another player with 6000 and two shorter stacks, one with 2000 and one with 3000. I raised in first position and the 2000 chipped player in the SB moved in. The blinds were 100-200, I had raised to 500. So with the 300 in the blinds, plus my 500, plus his call (400) and raise (1500), there was 2700 in the pot. I had to call 1500 to win 2700. So I was getting a bit less then 2:1. Clearly 4 handed I have a monster. BUT with a almost guaranteed cash if I fold I probably should fold everything but AA, KK, QQ, and maybe AKs. Its good to play for 1st, but you shouldn't throw away a good situation. 2nd chip position with high blinds is a great situation to avoid CALLING big raises and reraises. You can simply wait to be the raiser. Especially if people are generally folding.

Of course I ended up losing the hand to TT. But regardless of the result, when I call there the best case is that I will win 75% of the time. So in the best case, 25% of the time I become a super short stack, and am going to get 4th a lot of the time. Why bother making a play here when you can just wait for someone else to take this sort of risk. Or even better, you can steal or bluff your way into a cash. Calling is just not the same as raising.

What I did find generally was that if I could get to three handed with a decent stack (even short, but not like 3xBB), I had a very strong chance of winning 2nd or 1st. SOOOO it is incrediby important to consider the table situation when 4-5 handed, not in terms of getting the most chips right now, but instead in terms of placing yourself in a place where you can expect to cash those spots a high percentage of the time.

Basically, I tend to play more aggressively if I have the smallest stack - once I pass the other shortest stack I will play a bit tighter. I'm still trying to accumulate chips, but I'm no longer playing hyper aggressively. By hyper aggressively, I mean I will raise or push all-in any time I'm first to the pot and I don't have a terrible hand. The main thing I have noticed is that you get a stigma as the short stack, people are more willing to call that player than any other. So you want make every effort to not be the shortest for as much of the tournament as possible. AND you want your opponents to be the shortest stack when there are fewer players for a greater proportion of the time. This makes it less likely that you will get called, and more likely they will be. Logically, it gives you a smaller chance of going broke (something that has a chance of happening every time you go allin and are called).

Once you are one of the average stacks you still should open up hand requirements, but avoid playing against players who like to call. When you are stealing, you don't want to play too many flops. Even more, avoid players who like to constantly reraise all-in. If you have a really strong hand it might be worth it to raise a bit less than you might normally - you might tempt a reraiser to take a shot when you are willing to call them (AA, KK, QQ, AKs, etc.).

I highly recommend doing Matt's limpin play a lot in the SB when you are average stacked. Its a great way to stay even and grow your stack without taking much of a risk.

When you get a big lead, I tend to play tight, but concentrate on stealing to keep my stack the same size against average/smaller stacked players. When I can see flops cheaply - limping, I like to do that with a lot of hands. I then generally bluff at scare cards a lot. Aces are great cards to lead out at, if you have anything resembling a hand or draw. Players rarely limp in with aces, so when you bet at ace high boards, people have jacks and tens in their hands and will generally fold.

I am going to play another 250 block of these 10+1s starting tonight. I tried playing 20+2s and the gameplay style is much, much harder. Everyone plays very tight. I cashed in 3 out of 10, and each one took much longer. I was the chip leader in all three of the ones I cashed in, and through unfortunate bad beats, I ended up getting all 3rds. Thats a pretty big loss, so I'm gonna get back to what works.

Grind it out...

Time and again I have to remind myself to avoid playing BIG pots in these SNGs. If you wait to see the flop with "decent" cards you can decide to play the pot or not - but if you get all-in, you always have the chance to lose a big pot and potentially be eliminated against a "crap hand."

We've all moved in with that AK or KK to get called with some terrible trash hand like Q9 or A3 and been busted.

What I always ask myself about after this happens is, "Did I need to be all-in that hand?" A lot of times I decide yes, I had say 5-6 BBs left and I really cannot get away from the hand if I raise, so going all-in was the only play. But I often find myself pushing when I could stand to raise and see a flop and then either move in or fold. This middle range, around 7-11 BBs, is a good place to do the stop and go play as well as give yourself a chance to escape if your opponent hits an obvious trump card.

The key is to always avoid the sorts of "marginal" situations where you could afford to see a flop, but instead push and give your opponent the opportunity to get a lot of your chips if they get lucky. I have noticed that a big mistake players make against me is overbetting in heads up. I slowly grind players down, if they bet a lot, I usually fold (unless I think I'm way ahead). Its very typical for players to lock up when they get down to a 5:1 or 6:1 chip disadvantage. In these spots you should put lots of pressure on your opponent, but don't raise/call his all in with J5s or something stupid. I cannot tell you the amount of times my opponents have either A, come back and won when I have made this mistake, and B, made this mistake themselves, doubled me up leading to me winning 1st.

The obvious thing is hold'em is that you can find a lot better situations to get chips then a showdown - especially when you have chips. When you have an opponent who will fold a good percentage of the time you bet (if you are playing reasonably tight) then just grind it out. You don't need to gamble, use your chips as a weapon and play small ball to take home a victory...

Equity changes in an SNG

One thing I am learning a lot about in playing all of these SNGs is that your chips don't have a monetary value and so your equity is no longer the same as in normal poker ring games.

So for example, in a ring game, you have AK on the cutoff. A short stack in early position raises a standard 3x BB raise. You should recognize that AK is probably ahead here and even when its not it stands to win the pot more often than the short stack's hand. (eg they have a small pair - your bet on the flop will often win it). This is a great spot to reraise because you want to push your small margins. If they have AQ or AJ you want them to make a mistake against you here. BUT based on their hand range you probably aren't much more than a 5% favorite before the hand in the long run. This is important to understand. In ring games you push your small margins because in the long run its correct to do so. Putting that small stack all-in now is the best play for making the most money over the million times you have this type of situation...

Now in SNGs the difference is that any given hand means nothing. Your equity on a given hand is less important then the chips you have. Quite simply, if you lose your chips you cannot rebuy - so the long run makes little difference, its all about this hand, whatever result you get, this time only.

Matt and I were recently discussing a hand he busted out on. Here is the situation:

4 players remain in a 5+.50 SNG. Blinds are 120-240. Blind levels will increase in the next few minutes.

Matt was 2nd in chips with ~4000 chips. The chip leader had him covered slightly. The other two players have had ~2000 chips.

Matt is dealt KK. The chip leader, in first position, moves all-in for all of Matt's chips.

What do you do?

Now this was a very interesting hand I think because Matt has a lot of chip equity in this spot. Basically, when you lock up at least 3rd place you've locked up 60% of the prize pool. This means that all three players are guaranteed to win that 2xBuyins at 3rd, and then are playing for 2nd - 1xBuyin and 1st - 3xBuyins. If you lose in 4th, you are out, period. And if you do not bust out 4th, even if you have a small stack, you have the possibilty of winning first.

So getting back to Matt's hand, he called, his opponent showed TT, spiked a T on the river, and Matt was out.

Now, without considering the result - I think that this may be an instance where you should at least consider folding. This is a situation where the only thing that you lose by folding is the blinds, but in the best possible, likely scenario (an underpair) when you do call, you are out of the tournament 1/5 of the time. Lets say we put him on this hand distribution, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AKs, AK. Poker Stove sets the KK as a 77% favorite in this situation. So the question is which is a better play?

If you fold--- Based on the current chips, lets say that you will get 4th 5% of the time, 3rd 40% of the time, 2nd 40% of the time, and 1st 15% of the time. This would mean 0 + 0.8 + 1.2 + 0.75 = 2.75 is ~ your equity for folding here.
If you call --- Based on the current chips, lets say that you will get 4th 23% of the time, 3rd 7% of the time, 2nd 25% of the time, and 1st 50% of the time. This would mean 0 + .14 + .75 + 2.5 = 3.39 is ~ your equity for calling here.

So it looks like calling is the correct play. :) But I think it is also important to note how close this situtation is - with QQ it might not be correct - or if we move the numbers around a bit based on a weaker table, it very easily could move in the direction of a correct fold situation. The point of this post is to get the idea out there that some of the time its correct to play certain hands differently than in ring games based purely on the fact that if you are out you don't make any money!

Small Ball

Let's be honest here. When you are playing sitngos players don't like to play after the flop. Strangely this is because they A) have little experience post flop and B) they aren't good at it.

So how can you exploit this? I find that I like to play small ball. What I mean is play small pots and lots of them.

I do this for two reasons.

1) Huge implied odds
2) Its hard to make a hand in hold'em

ONE) I know that if I hit a monster my opponents are terrible and will get it all in. This is why the standard strategy (see Matt's post) is - play pps, some suited connectors, but basically just monster hands. The implied odds in SNGs is huge. Most ppl cannot get away from TPTK, so you flop a set, and all their chips are belong to you. There are plenty of times where you can hit other strong hands though. And when you have blinds of 10-20 or 15-30 - that is a lot of lottery tickets. You call that min-raise with Q6s on the button, hit trips, and you might grab a few hundred or even someones whole stack. I've found that if I'm willing to gamble with 1/3 of my chips ealry on, I don't lose very much - and usually I get an above average stack in no time.

TWO) Hold'em is an interesting game. We all know the basic odds of hitting a pair on the flop with two unpaired whole cards is about 2:1 (around 1/3 the time). Most of the time then, ppl miss. If you are in the pot, in position, those are free chips out there. Even more, you will hit some of the time - and those pots are yours too. Even more importantly - when ppl miss most fold to small bets; I pick up the vast majority of these pots on the flop for a 1/2 pot sized bet (or less).

HOW) So what I like to do is play about 3-6 hands per round. I play any suited cards that don't have a 2 or 3 in them. Any connected cards and one-gap connectors (the worst of which would be 78os or T8os). If I'm first to the pot I usually min-raise, but sometimes I put in 3x BB or limp. The key is seeing flops - so I always make smaller pots, so if I am raised I can call some of the time (when its not too much of my stack at risk). Then its pretty straight forward - I bet when I think they missed/are weak and check/fold when I think they are strong/hit. I only play big pots when I have a big hand. A pair is not a big hand.

This is working great for me. I have cashed in my last 7/10 SNGs. Gotten 3 firsts. And the other benefit, I've yet to bust out early. Every bust out has been 5th or better. I highly advocate learning how to play after the flop in these early. Playing any other way, just seems stupid to me.

Unlucky, but above average at SNGs

I played 50 sitngos today/yesterday. Yes, 50. I chose the 10+1 limit of NLHE for this experiment.

Here are my results:

2x 1st
6x 2nd
13x 3rd
6x 4th ---
23x 5th-10th ---

I spent $550 in buyins and won $540. Net -$10.

Now I will say that the high amount of thirds is largely due to getting unlucky many many times during the late stages of three handed play with big blinds. I could easily have had more 1sts/2nds had a few 80-90% hands gone my way, but what can you do.

My average finish is 4.5 and my average amount won is 11 (not sure how that worked out considering I'm down $10).

Anyway, I did get unlucky a lot, but then occassionally I'd get lucky myself so who knows if I can even factor that into my results. I also was stealing short and ran into aces in 4 SNGs in a row. Which equaled a 4/5 finish in all of those. My early knockouts usually happend because of huge coolers, (set over set) or because I got sucked out on (AA vs AQ with a Q high flop - he hits trips on the river after money is in).

My big problem with these overall is that I had an overall above average run in terms of results. BUT I still came up a loser. I do not see how you can be that proftiable playing these. The best expectation I think a player can have is an average finish of 4 and an average amount won of 12.5-14. With those sorts of results you could make about 75-150 per 50 SNGS, but even that seems like a lot of work for very little gain. I would imagine you could also consider moving up stakes to 30+3s or so. But even then. 50 SNGs at that level would be harder to win, and best case (and I mean like the best player in the world) would only win you 450.

Am I missing something? Is it much easier than I think? I cannot see how you can consistently have 1sts as opposed to 2nds and 3rds. Its usually a bit of a crap shoot at those late stages. Yes, you can play better than some opponents in these spots (usually those playing too tight). BUT that doesn't mean that you won't get unlucky a couple times and be out...

Anyway, I was pleased to see that only 3 times I finished less than 6th. And I finished in the money 21 times, which isn't all that terrible - Fischman said that the best player in the world could expect to cash in 40% of the SNGs he/she plays...

I'm gonna try to write up some strategy discussions about these tomorrow. I'm curious how you tend to handle the early/middle/late stages of SNGs and other various situations...

Sit+GO = WIN

I was kinda on a small break from playing ring games when a friend of mine asked me if I wanted to play a $10 sit-n-go on fulltilt... I ended up winning it for a prize of $45 and I have not stopped playing them since then...

It's hard for me to explain how bout some of these players are... I have been able to keep a ROI of 40%+, thats rediculous. If you want to see how well full tilt has been to me please sharkscope me - I'm Bro002 on fulltilt poker, they rate me as a shark!

I started by playing strictly $10 buy-in 9player tables but i've been doing so well that i've started moving up, i'm currently moving my way into the $20 level. I plan to keep going up and up until I hit the wall where it's no longer profitable to move up. I'm also starting to play some of the 18,45 and 90 sitngos.

It seems that most REALLY REALLY bad players want to play sit-n-goes... I though I would let you guys know :) I'm gonna start tackling specific topics in my next post, I know I have been slacking and my contecnt has been somewhat unorganized, i'll make an effort to improve.

Taking a break...

I have been either playing badly or running badly for about 2 weeks. Although I have stopped having large losing days - my winning days are pathetic. I'm at the same $600 I had wittled my poor UB account down to after logging about 100 hours of poker. That is not good. I'm sure I could be playing better - because you can always be doing that. But honeslty, I feel like game quality is becomming incredibly difficult. The games I was destroying have slowly transformed into games where 4-5 of the same solid players are sitting alongside me on every table. I largely blame the new law for this - there just aren't enough fish flooding the poker sites that their once were.

I've finally decided that I need to take a break from poker. Online poker has been my "job" for the past year. Its been very good to me - but I cannot have consistently poor results like I've been facing the past couple weeks if I'm going to make enough money to only play poker for a living. I've banked about 5k in the last 2 months and I figure that will last me at least 3 more. I'm going to apply to some local computer gaming companies in the meantime - and hopefully get a job at one of them.

I'll probably continue to play poker casually or online in my spare time. I'm going to leave my money on UB until its gone or its worth cashing out. But anyway, I'll continue to update this blog as things develop...

Telling a believeable story.

Lately I have been making a major effort to give less importance to my cards and more to my opponents. My basic goal is to get them to believe they are beat when they aren't and that they are ahead when they are far from it. How do I do it? I tell a believeable story.

Think about a situation where you raise preflop with a hand like AcKd in middle position. The button and one of the blinds calls. The flop comes 9h Js 4h. Now a lot of people wonder - should I continuation bet here? What I have started to figure out is that betting out here is not a very good idea. Here's my thinking:

First, what types of hands are my opponents likely to have - here they likely called with middle suited/connected cards or pocket pairs. Clearly the 9 and J are bad cards because they fit into both of these categories. The hearts are also bad because I have no hearts and suited hands could quite possibly equal two hearts.

Second, what types of hands do my opponents put me on - of course I could have a big pair, but my opponents are going to 90% of the time put me on exactly what I have - AK. (If I did have a big pair, I'd want to bet about 1/2 the pot; enough to see if my opponents hit the flop hard, but not so much that I'm committing a significant amount of chips with just one pair.)

Third, what do I want to accomplish by betting - if I did bet I would want my opponents to fold. I don't have a hand and it would be a complete bluff in this instance.

So what are my options in this situation? I try to think for reasons to bet first - so why should I bet here? Not a ton of reasons other than there are 9BBs out there and I wouldn't mind adding them to my stack. If I bet my opponents will think one of a two things:

1) I have an overpair, if they think this and are strong (a set or a huge draw) they will raise, if they have nothing they will fold (this is what I want)
2) I have AK, if they think this and are strong (a set or a huge draw) they may raise or call (and let me hang myself if I catch up or decide to bet again on the turn), if they have nothing again they might fold - but quite a few of them may just raise with a decent hand (like a small pocket pair or a decent draw)

If I do bet I would want to bet around 1/2 the pot. If I win 1/3 of my bluff attempts this would be a break even play. Its questionable in this situation if I would win even that often.

Another consideration I have in this hand though, is that if I bet, am called, AND miss again on the turn - now what? If I check/fold I've lost 7.5BBs, if I bet again I could be being trapped or bluffed out - losing chips with no hand.

----

So in this situation I am much more inclined to check the flop. I think this is more believeable to most players because with AK, you missed, and they are most likely to assume that is what you have. You are also out of position - every dollar you put in this hand you will be doing so with less information than your opponents. If your opponents go crazy and bet/raise you won't know yet. This dangerous board will likely be bet if someone hit because they will be afraid of all of the drawing potential.

In addition, look at the turn card if your opponents checked the flop. If its an Ace, King, Queen, or even Jack it is much more believeable for you to bet. You could have a lot of hands that hit those cards - and would bet. If any non-scary card hits (non heart, ten, or eight) you can also bet because your opponents have shown they don't want the pot. And if you occassionally check when you hit flops - your check may have looked like a trap that you were trying to check-raise on the flop. I am inclined to bet a little more on this bluff than a flop bluff because your opponents don't like their hands enough to bet on that scary board - they sure won't want to call a 3/4 pot sized turn bet!

---

This whole discussion is really just about the idea that your cards are not really important in this situation. That is the difference in my play now. Its not about my cards unless we get to showdown. So, if I can convince my opponents to just fold and see the next hand in situations where they seem to be unhappy with their holdings - and escape throwing money into pots where my opponents love their hand - I can make a TON of money at poker. :D

The difference between live and online

Playing 5 handed $1/$2 NL. We have been playing for about 6 hours and there is about $1,500 on the table. I have $300 behind.

I am in the small blind, there is a straddle to $4. All 3 players in front of me call, I raise to $15 - everyone calls(uncommon, this game plays fairly tight). Flop comes:

Ah 7h 4d

It gets checked to the big blind who bets $4 - Everyone calls without hesitation. Turn comes:

Ac

Small blind checks, I bet $40 - it's folded to the cutoff who calls, button and small blind fold. River comes:

8s

I check, and the cutoffs bets $80. I instantly call.

Who wins?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I quickly turn over KK. I really think that this hand is interesting because calling $80 on the river with only a pair of kings would be very difficult to do online but because I was able to pick up a live tell, I had absolutly no problem calling a big bet on the river.

The other player shook my hand and mucked his, I don't believe he had anything at any point in this hand. I feel like he picked up that there was no way I had an ace and decided that he was going to take me off my hand on the river which in my opinion is great play unfortunetly he gave something away on the turn and there was no way I was folding.

Unlucky Hand...

Last night the river was giving me a really hard time. I kept getting great hands - and then getting cracked by a luckbox on the river AFTER the money went in.

Yet there was one hand that I played questionably and I would be curious to know how others would play it...

I had TcTs in late position. An early position player raised to 4x BB (a larger than normal raise usually suggests a premium hand). I have position, so I opt to call and hope to outflop my opponent. The flop comes Th, 8c, 2d. The perfect flop has arrived. I do not believe my opponent is the type of player to overplay top/overpairs. I decide to play this hand pretty slowly - I just call his pot sized bet on the flop. On the turn a Js hits. Board seems very safe so I again simply call his nearly pot sized bet - I plan on reraising him on the river, or betting if he checks. I'm thinking about a half pot sized bet will easily get called. The river comes the Kh. This is obviously a bad card for my hand. My opponent checks, what would you do?




----




I thought about this for about 10 seconds and decided to bet. I decided it was possible my opponent had been bluffing with a hand like AK, or he could have AA, KK, or QQ. It didn't make sense for him to check on the river with AK - he finally made his hand, so thats out. But I thought it was very possible he had AA, at which point he might think I have KK and I just hit a set on the river; I still thought if he had AA he would call a bet. I then considered if he had QQ. The K would be a terrible card because if he wasn't beat before, what can he beat now? If he thought I had AA or KK I was already winning - and now what the heck can he beat? Lastly, and this was the worst scenario - he had KK. If he just got the second nuts its quite odd that he would check here. If he puts me on a set however, its a great check because he knows I almost have to bet. Figuring I have to value bet my hand, I bet $30 - about 1/3 the pot. My opponent raises to $75. Oops! What have I done! I decide that I'm getting nearly 5:1 and have to call. My opponent shows KcKs for top set. Ugh!

So was it terribly dumb to bet middle set on this board? I think this might be a case for a conservative play (checking on the river) because the only hand that will call is AA and the rest of the time I am going to be reraised and pretty much forced to call based on the chance my opponent is playing AA or AK strangely. I have been thinking a lot about this hand, and it seems like at the river my hand is just a medium strength hand. Generally speaking if I think my opponent might be very strong I never bet medium strength hands on the river. Another lesson learned. :)

Tight Aggressive is the nuts.

Playing a tight aggressive style is so much more fun than playing rock-tight aggressive - and more importantly, much more profitable.

Currently, I basically play any premium hands (AA-QQ, AKs-ATs, AK-AT), any pairs (22-JJ), any suited connectors (45s-KQs), and any one or two gapped suited connectors (46s-KJs). Whenever I'm first to the pot I raise. I usually raise 2x BB, but nearly as often I raise 3x BB (the smaller raise is usually made in early/middle position and the larger is made in late position). If another play has open-raised I will only call with pairs (99-AA) and AK; and often I will reraise with (AA, KK, and AK). If other players have limped in, sometimes I will raise them, sometimes I limp behind. This is not based on the strength of my hand (generally), but often is a factor of position. If its folded to me and I'm on the button I'll raise with just about any two cards to 3x BB (and I usually will do the same in the SB).

The main thing I my game that has changed is my post flop play. I had always read that you should generally bet about 2/3-3/4 the pot on the flop if the board was dangerous and about 1/2 the pot when its not. The problem is if you bet this much into a preflop raised pot then you are actually betting a lot. So if you have bottom pair and are semi-bluffing the flop you are risking a lot of chips.

For example, you raise to 3x BB with AhTh on the cutoff. The BB calls. The pot is 7xBB. The flop comes TcQh2c. You bet your standard 3/4 sized pot bet, about 5.5xBB.

If you bet this much and you are raised you pretty much are stuck folding. If you are called, the pot on the turn is very big and you are going to have to fire at least a 12xBB bet on the turn. Lastly, if you need to bluff the river - the two large flop/turn bets make the pot or even half pot sized river bet HUGE - 20xBB or even 40xBB. Clearly a different strategy is necessary.

Here's mine: basically I decided that a lot of the time players either hit a flop or they don't. Most look at top pair, and top pair only (or better). They won't call you with bottom pair - or even middle pair no matter how big you bet the flop. I basically have changed my continuation bet to a 1/3 pot sized bet nearly every time. If I flop the nuts, have a draw, have bottom or middle pair, or have top pair, and so on. I always bet 1/3 the pot. The idea is that you are setting yourself up for later streets AND this bet has a very decent shot at winning the pot immediately. I pick up tons of pots on the flop with flush/straight draws simply by leading out for $2 into a $5-6 pot. A nice bonus is that most players with top pair will simply call a bet here - not raise. And those that do often min raise or 3x raise. Notice in both spots you are getting decent odds to call and suck out. :) And the few times where your opponents make a huge raise on the flop you can use that information. If you are really weak you have lost very little and can fold. If you are really strong you can call or raise and maximize the value of your strong hand.

Basically, thinking like my opponents - if I bet 2/3 the pot what does that mean: it tends to mean I have a hand that is strong and vulnerable. If my opponents have a hand they know is stronger they will call/raise; weaker they fold; and draws they can decide how to play them based on the situation. In all three situations the 2/3 sized bet is much easier to read than a small bet. When I bet 2x BB, my opponents might put me on the nuts, a draw, top pair, middle pair, a bluff, etc. Its much more difficult for my opponents to make the correct decision if I bet less than if I bet more. They can call with draws - but they won't bet you out of your draws. They will raise with huge hands, but call with decent ones. The small bet is a way for you to learn a ton of information, but giving your opponent almost no information.

Then I tend to follow through on the turn in two different ways according to how my opponent reacted to the flop. If I think the turn scared my opponent, or I think my opponent is weak, I always make a larger 2/3-3/4 sized bet. If I think the card helped my opponent or if I think my opponent is strong I can check/fold or bet a small amount again and if they don't raise - see if the river helps me. If I have a huge draw or a huge hand and the turn made a lot of draws or created a situation where I think my opponent will likely like their hand more and I am strong (ie I have a set and I put my opponent on a big ace, the turn brings an ace OR the turn brings a blank and I think that my opponent really liked his hand on the flop), then I usually raise all-in.

Again, I keep the pot small on turn if I want to see the river, but I also give my opponent the opportunity to fold. I also make a few more aggressive plays on the turn because usually its when my opponents decide that I must not be bluffing this time and fold. I rarely ever check or call. If I check it tends to mean either I'm looking to check raise (very rare) or its because I figure that my opponent will not fold and there is no way for me to win (I've given up this hand).

The river is more of the same. But now if I need to pull off that big river bluff its big like 10x-20xBB not 20x-40xBB. Thats a huge difference. Its also great because by constantly firing all the time people really have no idea where I'm at. I often win many pots with hands like TT on Khigh boards.

The advantage of this style is that I give my opponents lots of opportunities to make mistakes - and because I only ever call (usually all-ins) based on correct mathematical situations I am not making too many mistakes myself. Math has a place in poker, but when you are the one doing the betting its much less significant than most people think. It doesn't matter that I bet 2x the BB instead of 5xBB to block flush draws if I am representing a pair of aces with my J8s. If I win the pot - who cares if sometimes that flush calls and even hits. I only invested 4-6x the BB, not a big fold, but all those small 6XBB pots that I do pick up add up...

More to come soon. :)

Overbetting and me!

Poker is an odd game. I played my uber tight strategy for nearly a year with relatively steady, but also pretty mediocre results. Bonuses made up about half of my winnings. Enter The Muck.

I started experimenting with new styles with the launch of this blog, spending time playing Super Loose Aggressive (maniac), semi-Loose Aggressive, Tight Aggressive, and even Tight Passive. Then I started messing around with tournaments as I came upon the terrible, but easily beatable satellite tourneys over at Party Poker. And right in the middle of the tourney experience, Matt and I made our way over to Vegas. This trip taught me a lot about my poker playing. First off, it reminded me that you don't need a hand to win the pot. For some reason I had sort of pushed this out of my mind and bluffed very rarely online. It also reminded me that exploiting your opponents' weaknesses is how you make money. Matt and I talked in length about identifying the few players at the table who we knew to be careful of AND those with no idea what they are doing...

So I come home from our trip and low and behold my stupid government has caused party poker - my source of income - to shut its doors to U.S. players. Ugh! But interestingly, some sites decided to embrace the stupid law and basically come out with a SCREW YOU GUYS attitude, ala Full Tilt. <3 <3 <3

So I cashed out the majority of my Party money into my bank account and deposited about 500 onto my full tilt account. So I started playing the same .5/1.00 games that I used to play in as a ring game player. OMG! I started tearing these games apart. I've trippled my initial deposit in less than 7 hours. I don't think that its just that the games are much easier than before due to the new influx of X-party poker players (although this is part of the reason for sure).

I think its mainly that the players on full tilt generally play SUPER tight preflop and on the flop. But interestingly, these players have a very hard time letting go of good hands after that point. So bascially my strategy has been. Play a semi-loose aggressive style. I play positional poker, raising either 2x, 3x, or 4x the BB based on position somewhat and varying my play too. I play big hands in early, and then will play any big suited cards or connectors in middle/late position. I rarely ever call. Then on the flop if I bet preflop I almost always bet about 1/3 of the pot if its checked to me. Players are incredibly willing to fold to this tiny bet - so I don't risk more. Its also worth noting that these players know basic math - they will call about 3/4 a pot sized bet with most drawing hands (making these bets less valuable). The interesting thing I've noticed is that if I have a hugely powerful hand and the turn doesn't help my opponents hand (based on what I've put them on), I usually just move all in. This is what I mean by overvaluing their big hands.

For example yesterday I had pocket aces. I bet my small continuation bet on the flop of a 8 high 2 suited board. My opponent called. A queen of clubs hit the turn putting two flush draws on the board. Now I know that my opponent didn't have a hand as strong as queens, or a lower set or he would have raised on the dangerous flop. So I just moved all-in. My opponent called with pocket tens and my hand held up, doubling me up. :)

I continually make plays like this - with sets, three of kind, straights, or flushes. You'd be surprised how many people will call a huge overbet with garbage. Sometimes I don't even move in, I'll just bet the pot after hitting my hand on the turn and checking it. It looks like a bluff to these players who seem to think they are better than they are. I've gotten called a very high % of the time.

Today I doubled through 7 times. SEVEN! I didn't even hit very many hands. But because I'm always betting people have no idea when I have a hand and when I don't. I have also frustrated or confused players into calling me with really odd holdings. I check raised all in on a Kd4d5c board with the AdTd and was called by K9! King freaking nine! I hit my ace on the turn, and the flush on the river. Later on I hit a set of kings on the turn (but the Kh also put a flush out there). My opponent bet, and knowing that he had to have exactly AA or QQ (for a set of queens) I moved in and he called for 10x the size of the pot with QQ! If I have the flush he's drawing at 10 outs - and of course as it was he was drawing to the single remaining queen... I love playing a bit crazy aggressive because people start making BAD plays against you, and thats what poker is about - making your opponents make the biggest mistakes possible!

Oh Canada!

So I need a Canadian address so I can keep playing on party poker. If there are any Brunos out there that would like to hook a poor American up that would be great. :P

A good player's advantage.

I recently wrote up a post about math and poker - basically voicing a frustration about continually getting my money in with the best hand and losing a great amount of the time. Bruno made a comment in that post reminding me what seperates good players from bad ones.

Bad players have to make decisions based on small mathematical margins - eg. if they have aces they move all-in, they will take every AK vs AQ spot they can find, and they will put all their money in with top pair.

Good players avoid ever getting their money ALL-IN without a huge mathematical edge - eg. if they have a set, flush, straight, or full house (Spots where they generally stand to win more than 90% of the time).

Along with Bruno's comments, I was reading through the book Pressure Poker and the author mentions that even if you get your money ALL-IN as a huge favorite twice, against the right hand by your opponent you will likley be eliminated. His example was you have AsAd the flop comes Ac5h6h. Your opponent moves ALL-IN with 7h8h. You will win the hand once about 2/3 of the time, but if you run into two of these types of situations you will win both only about 1/3 of the time. His point is simply that tournaments take luck to win because you will face these types of situations sometimes and even though you have an advantage you can easily lose.

Taking this concept I started to consider that getting ALL-IN with aces against an underpair. You start out as about an 82% favorite, but twice you are only about 67% to win, three times and you will win all three only about 55% of the time.

Basically, basing any sort of strategic situation on trying to get all the money in where you have an overpair to your opponent's overpair means that by the 3rd time you are about 50/50 to have lost one of the three 82% favorite races. This really is not a great spot to get your money in (when you have less chips than your opponent).

Now change the situation slightly. Lets say you raise 3-5X the BB. Your opponent calls. The flop comes T82. This is where being a good player can pay off. If you can figure out when you are beat with these flops, than you saved yourself from losing a big pot when you got unlucky. Similarly, if you are ahead and can get it ALL-IN at this point you are about 90% to win from here (a much better place to try to win the most chips possible).

Being a good player is less about winning big pots - and more about picking up small pots 95% of the time. Occassionally you will hit a big enough hand to warrant getting ALL-IN, but I think this should always be the exception not the rule.

Worst Run of My life.

Some disgusting stats:

7 set over set.
12 overpairs drawn out on(post flop).
2 flopped full houses beaten by quads.
4 flopped straits beaten by runner-runner flush.
4 two pair beaten by an overpaird and the board pairing on the turn or river.
3 flush over flush.

You must be thinking, wow - you had alot of very good hands. That is correct, i've flopped some amazing hands, unfortunetly they did not hold up. I had two flopped full houses get beaten by the player hitting quads on the turn - after the second one I had to stop playing because I had actually become ill.

Thankfully, all that matters is the ammount of money in my account at the end of the day and the hit was not too bad, still dissapointing... Imagine what could have been.

EDIT: Decided i'm not going to class tomorow morning, which means I'm gonna play a little more poker.

PRE-FLOP
Bro02 calls $0.50, l3umboy folds, metopia calls $0.50, peateypab folds, 2basecj8 folds, adobery calls $0.50, Dunsky folds, poorboy23 calls $0.25, AngeloNero checks.

FLOP [board cards KS,7D,8D ]
poorboy23 checks, AngeloNero checks, Bro02 bets $1.50, metopia calls $1.50, adobery calls $1.50, poorboy23 folds, AngeloNero folds.

TURN [board cards KS,7D,8D,9D ]
Bro02 checks, metopia bets $3, adobery calls $3, Bro02 calls $3.

RIVER [board cards KS,7D,8D,9D,9C ]
Bro02 bets $10, metopia folds, adobery bets $30, Bro02 calls $20.

SHOWDOWN
adobery shows [ 6D,5D ]
Bro02 mucks cards [ 7H,7S ]
adobery wins $75.

Sad day for online poker players...

Despite arguments in the House that the Port Security Bill failed to address concerns over rail and mass transit security and heavy objections over including a prohibition on internet gambling, the Port Security Act was passed shortly after midnight Friday.

Tournaments, tournaments, and more tournaments.

So, I have officially given up ring games (at least for the time being). I really like playing in tournaments - the players are just so bad. Matt was watching yesterday when I pushed all-in with a medium-short stack with AJ in middle position and was called by an average stack holding ATs. Nobody seems to understand the GAP concept - and that is basically my rule of play in tournaments (as well as most good players). I'll raise with about any two cards if I think I have a pretty good shot at stealing, but I definitely will not call raises (or all-ins) with AQ or worse.

I have spent the past few days trying to get a handle on the two basic starting strategies - 1) play tight until the blinds/antes get big enough to steal; then try to steal enough blinds to get enough chips to get to the final table; 2) play loose early in the tournament (in position) with hands that are easy to play after the flop (and are generally sneaky); get enough chips early to steal blinds/antes without much risk due to being one of the chip leaders.

In both strategies, I avoid getting all-in with anything less than 2-pair or a 40%+ draw (or AA, KK preflop), I avoid playing pots with big stacks, and I avoid playing hands like AQ, AJ, KQ, or KJ until the blinds get really high (and then I have to be the raiser in late position or be REALLY short).

I like the second strategy much more because people overplay their hands and underbet boards with draws. Only in tournaments will you hit the nut flush and then get raised all-in by your opponents. :P Two times yesterday, I had Ax suited. The board came AxT, giving me two pair and a back door flush. The turn hit my flush draw. I got multiple players all-in both times. And they couldn't beat two pair (usually having a lower flush draw). Just amazingly great.

-----

Anyway, the point of this post was to inquire about good tournament opportunities. I basically want to play in every 100k+ tournament online, which has satelites. Pokerstars doesn't seem to have a lot of satelites - but it seems like Full Tilt and Party Poker have a ton. I seem to play the same in cheap events as more expensive ones, so I am trying to be as smart with my bankroll as possible - playing in cheap events to qualify for the real events. I'm hoping to get to a point where I'm basicaly playing in about 25+, 100K+ events every week (all from qualifiers/satelites).

So far I have won/cashed in 13 out of 60 tournaments. My biggest cash has been about $600 with a 1st in a Party Monster qualifier and I've won 4 party poker Sunday million qualifiers for $215 each. I've also bubbled around 20 times, so I'll need to get a lot more results to get an idea of the long term.

Did he just call me with 6 high?

Full Tilt Poker Game #1055551107: $9,000 Guarantee (6990800), Table 27 - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:23:50 ET - 2006/10/01
Seat 1: odaddy48 (7,055)
Seat 2: williamnine (1,861)
Seat 3: I_AM_EVIL (5,780)
Seat 4: sobhlo (2,035)
Seat 6: biglefty777 (4,755)
Seat 7: LarryLives (4,165)
Seat 8: JadeFan (2,210)
Seat 9: Bro002 (4,690)
JadeFan posts the small blind of 80
Bro002 posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Bro002 [4h 6h]
odaddy48 folds
williamnine folds
I_AM_EVIL folds
sobhlo folds
biglefty777 folds
LarryLives folds
JadeFan calls 80
Bro002 checks
*** FLOP *** [6c 8h 8c]
ssamuels123 sits down
ssamuels123 adds 6,810
JadeFan bets 160
Bro002 calls 160
*** TURN *** [6c 8h 8c] [7d]
JadeFan bets 160
Bro002 calls 160
*** RIVER *** [6c 8h 8c 7d] [7s]
JadeFan bets 160
Bro002 raises to 1,000
JadeFan calls 840
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Bro002 shows [4h 6h] (two pair, Eights and Sevens)
JadeFan shows [5h 5s] (two pair, Eights and Sevens)
JadeFan ties for the pot (1,480) with two pair, Eights and Sevens
Bro002 ties for the pot (1,480) with two pair, Eights and Sevens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,960 | Rake 0
Board: [6c 8h 8c 7d 7s]
Seat 1: odaddy48 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: williamnine didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: I_AM_EVIL didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: sobhlo didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: biglefty777 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: LarryLives (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: JadeFan (small blind) showed [5h 5s] and won (1,480) with two pair, Eights and Sevens
Seat 9: Bro002 (big blind) showed [4h 6h] and won (1,480) with two pair, Eights and Sevens

My Love/Hate Relationship with Full Tilt

I decided that I was gonna clear full tilts generous 100% bonus up to $600 - so i deposit $600 on full tilt and I start opening 0.25/0.50 tables so I can get at it, i'm trying to fit these tables like I do on partypoker, 4 on each monitor - I spend about 15 minutes trying to resize the tables when I finally ask someone for help. Full Tilt does not have resizable tables... wow. The only way to play 8+ tables on full tilt is to have 2 CRT monitors with really high resolutions so i'm out of luck. I cannot believe that full tilt has not implemented this feature yet... that's the hate.

Here's the love - full tilt is by far the easiest game I have ever played, everyone plays ridiculously tight, combine that with the fact that they run 9-max tables instead of 10-max and you have me running over tables... I will literally raise from early position with suited connectors and raise from the cutoff and button with hands like K/7o, it's that tight. I'm not even sure if i could play 10 tables on full tilt because im raising like 40% of the hands. Players aren't only tight preflop, they are brutal post flop, I can't remember loosing one hand where I was in position. If its checked to me, I bet, they fold - if they bet, I reraise if I catch any piece of the flop, they fold... It's ridiculous.

This morning I was playing 6 0.25/0.50 tables, after about two hours I opened my cashier and my total $ in play was $840. I had two tables which had 5 times my original buy-in and I never chipped up. I think i'm running well - I say think because i'm not sure if i'm hitting more hands just because i'm playing more hands... for example, I must have hit 15 sets this morning but I raise with any pair in any position, so i'm getting to see many more flops with pairs, usually I just take the blinds tho.

The greatest part about all of this is that people play even tighter against me because my stack is so big, people will lay down top pair with a medium kicker because they don't want to play for their entire stack(which I will make them do, i'm relentless in my aggression). Heres another reason my crushing full tilt, everyone is playing small stacks - for some reason, players don't buy in for the maximum on this site so when i make a continuation bet and someone calls me for 20% of their stack, I know they they are trying to trap me or are a very strong draw. They make it easy, they are pretty much showing me their hands...

I started playing last night and i've unlocked $60 of my bonus and accumulated about 1000 FPP so I should be done in about 10 days with 10,000 FPPs - i'll probably keep playing on full tilt to get a custom football jersey, that thing is pretty sweet.

Party Poker Satelites?

Ok so I may have a new life plan in poker - Party Poker Satelites.

After reading Bruno's post about the softness of the online tourneys I figured I'd play in a $3 rebuy satelite for the sunday million tourney ($215 entry fee). I never rebought, was the chip leader for nearly the entire match, only got my money in bad once (when it was four handed, and the blinds were rediculous). Basically I just waited for good hands and/or played positional raises all-in. Pretty straight forward stuff. I had a few hands cracked (eg Aces to A6s) and made a few rather decent calls (called an all-in bluff on the river with Ace high), but it was generally an easy ride. The people just made blantantly bad plays, so either I knew I was winning or not (this makes playing poker much easier...)

So for $3 and about 2 hours of my time I'm in the Sunday Millions. Cannot complain much about that. :) I noticed that these are soft on the Poker Network too. I'd be curious if tournament players could basically just play lots of satelites and cleanup. If you cashed in only 1 or 2 bigger tournies a month you would likely make a LOT, and if you satelited in, it would be a very good investment. Like if I played in 50 sunday millions a year. I could probably expect to cash in 5-10, and cash well in at least 1 of those.

My grinding days will continue, but this has definitely made me think! I may devote a lot more of my time to tournaments...

Some more hands.

Winning poker is about maximizing when your ahead and minimizing your loses when your behind - even the best of players are going to lose, but the best of players get away with a scratch whereas average and weak players take a knive to the heart. This morning I was doing a poor job, this evening was better - I didnt really win that much, but I feel like I could have lost alot had I not played so well.

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/78717

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/78720

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/78721

Currently playing in the party poker 40k freezeout. Started with 2658 down to 240 players, I have double the average stack - i'll tell you what happens in my next post.

EDIT: I was 2nd in chips with 4 people remaining and we chopped. I cashed for $5,540. The poker gods are forgiven.

Wow.

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/78473

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/78475

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/78476

Cold Deck.

Hands, Blogs and the Sunday Million.

I played the $1,000,000 Guarantee this sunday on partypoker and everything was going great until this happend-

NL Texas Hold'em Trny:29169872 Level:12 Blinds-Antes(1500/3000-75) - Sunday,
Table Sunday Million Guaranteed(832558) Table #14 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Gershenator1 ( $32915 )
Seat 2: crunchtime3 ( $65392 )
Seat 4: eightrakk ( $18937 )
Seat 5: Bro002 ( $25766 )
Seat 8: allinsi ( $72560 )
Seat 9: weed666 ( $28094 )
Seat 10: athletenc87 ( $52282 )
Seat 7: xxmcxx ( $41759 )
Seat 6: NutMuck ( $239866 )
Seat 3: PearlJammed ( $144956 )
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Bro002 [ Qd Qs ]
Gershenator1 folds.
crunchtime3 folds.
PearlJammed folds.
eightrakk folds.
Bro002 raises [8000].
NutMuck folds.
xxmcxx calls [8000].
allinsi folds.
weed666 folds.
athletenc87 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, 7d, 2s ]
Bro002 checks.
xxmcxx bets [12253].
Bro002 is all-In [17691]
xxmcxx calls [5438].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jd ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ah ]
xxmcxx shows [ Ad, Ac ] three of a kind, aces.
Bro002 shows [ Qd, Qs ] three of a kind, queens.
xxmcxx wins 56632 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, aces.
Player Bro002 finished in 431 place and received $500

I wonder how much that card cost me... I din't run well all tournament so i'm pretty pleased that I could play through it for a decent cash... especially decent since I qualified in a $16 sattelite.

Here are some hands I played today:

I'm sure glad I checked this instead of betting like I normally do:
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/78123

Almost folded this:
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/78124

Should have gotten away from this:
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/78125

Gonna go play some live poker tonight, I'll update you guys when I get back. Until then here are some of the blogs I read:

http://fishbones11.blogspot.com/
http://billsparkspoker.blogspot.com/

Adjusting to table conditions.

I have been really experimenting with my NL HE game over the past month or so. I had played a SUPER tight, aggressive/passive style for a long time, but recently I have become aware of the need to alter play based on table conditions. I've talked about playing passively - and how for awhile I was steering towards using a passive style to trap opponents. In the past couple weeks I have switched to a more maniac style in certain conditions in order to get players who are playing tight/passive to fold - semi bluffing with any pair, any reasonable draw, or straight out bluffing when I think my opponents are weak. What I have learned from my experimentation is that no single style is the correct way to play poker. Its quite interesting if you play the wrong style in the wrong conditions you get completely destroyed (for instance loose/aggressive against calling stations does not work).

What I have noticed is that your opponents should completely be dictating play. For example, today I was playing my usual ten, 100 NL tables on Hollywood Poker. I started out with my "base" tight aggressive style. Playing tight, betting out AND bluffing at a lot of flops, and reraising players a lot in position - I was not doing well because players kept reraising or check-raising me on the flop. I was forced to fold AA or KK five times in less than an hour in these spots. In addition, players would call nearly any bet on the flop with draws, any pair, or even with nothing. I kept getting outdrawn or bluffed out of pots with hands that I very often pick up a pot (middle pair or a flush draw). A semi-bluff isn't much of a bluff if your opponents will never fold. :P

This is when playing passively on the flop can be a great change in strategy. I switched to basically playing just as aggressively before the flop - reraising with premium hands in position (or out of position to end the hand immediately), but I would check any flop where I didn't have a set or better. My results immediately changed - I started winning lots of pots with bluffs on the turn and I wasn't being challenged as much by reraises because of how scary a check and then pot sized bet (or raise) looks. In addition, my opponents weren't betting me out of draws so I got to hit my hand more often than usual - allowing me to win by hitting miracle cards in spots where I really shouldn't even see the next card (if my opponents were playing aggressively). When your opponents will call/raise if you bet, but let you see free cards if you check - then you can capitalize on this.

I think this type of "table detection" is one major component for playing great poker. Its not about simply deciding "Should I play tight or loose?" but rather "How can I take advantage of how my opponents are playing?" - "How can I win more with my good hands and minimize my losses when I am behind?" My main mistake has been sitting down with a style in mind. Instead I now want the table to determine my style - and a tight-aggressive style is a great place to start a session, but it might evolve into a maniac or mouse strategy if the situation calls for it. :)

---

On a side note, my friend Matt has taken up online multitable poker and we have spent a great deal of time discussing strategy over the past few weeks. He is interested to contributing to The Muck, so we will try to get that up and running ASAP.

Weird hand...

Texas Hold'em $1-$2 NL (real money), hand #1,035,260,657
Table Augsburg, 22 Sep 2006 5:57 AM ET

Seat 1: artsi88 ($26.05 in chips)
Seat 2: Tixmaster1 ($102.00 in chips)
Seat 3: AAAHHHBBB [ QH,QC ] ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 4: Miami 13 ($31.65 in chips)
Seat 5: Waldon9 ($108.40 in chips)
Seat 6: TheCrow xx ($26.10 in chips)
Seat 7: PauloSun ($61.50 in chips)
Seat 8: QK666 ($57.50 in chips)
Seat 9: gertrud75 ($87.50 in chips)
Seat 10: BALTIK67 ($35.10 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
QK666 posts blind ($0.50), gertrud75 posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP
BALTIK67 calls $1,
artsi88 bets $2,
Tixmaster1 folds,
AAAHHHBBB calls $2,
Miami 13 folds,
Waldon9 folds,
TheCrow xx folds,
PauloSun folds,
QK666 bets $5,
gertrud75 calls $4.50,
BALTIK67 folds,
artsi88 calls $3.50,
AAAHHHBBB calls $3.50.

FLOP [board cards 3H,8C,9H ]
QK666 checks,
gertrud75 checks,
artsi88 bets $10,
AAAHHHBBB bets $30,
QK666 folds,
gertrud75 bets $82 and is all-in,
artsi88 calls $10.55 and is all-in,
AAAHHHBBB folds.

TURN [board cards 3H,8C,9H,3S ]

RIVER [board cards 3H,8C,9H,3S,6C ]

SHOWDOWN
gertrud75 shows [ AH,JH ]
artsi88 shows [ AD,QS ]
artsi88 wins $82.65,
gertrud75 wins $70.90.

I want to get some discussion going about this hand. First off, I realize I probably should have poppped it up preflop. Honestly, the player made the suspicious min-raise preflop which I had seen him do with either aces or a drawing hand (pp or suited connector). I was hoping to see a cheap flop and then either hit a queen or the right flop and proceed from there.

The weird thing about this hand was the play on the flop of course - I took everyone checking except an odd halfpot sized bet into 3 players to mean that everyone missed (turns out this was correct) - so I reraised up to 30BBs. Now the problem of course was that I was worried that I was up against a set - but I figured odds are I had the raising player beat and would either pick up the pot or would worst case lose only his stack size in chips.

When the checking player moved in, I had no idea what to do with his hand range. It just seemed more likely he had a hand like 88, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA than Ahxh. I honestly did not even consider that he might be on a draw like that (I would never dream of semi-bluffing into a raise and reraise!). I decided that I could only beat a few of the hands that make that play so I folded. :(

Any thoughts on this hand would be great... - should I have seen through his raise? Should I have simply called on the flop? Should I have just reraised preflop and accepted that if he came over the top I would have to fold?

LAG to TAG?

My poker style continues to evolve.

I have noticed that the most profitable players I play against are generally classified as LAG players. Watching them more carefully they aren't crazy maniacs, but more methodical. They play pretty loose when they are in position and generally avoid playing out of position.

In attempting to improve my game further I have adopted a new "style." Bascially in the first 4-5 positions I tend to play a very tight style. I generally come in for a raise or reraise, but also only play AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AQs (sometimes AK or AQ) - and occassionally limp in with JJ, TT, or 99. In the late positions and the blinds, if it gets folded to me I play a very loose style. I raise with just about anything resembling a hand.

In both these spots, I generally try to be the one raising or reraising on the flop, turn, or river.

The value of being in position allows a maniacal strategy to work a lot of the time. It also confuses players who are only somewhat paying attention - or even good players. I've felted a few players with suited connector raises or small pair raises with lucky flops. And I've been able to steal lots of pots with reraises with flush or straight draws. I'll try to post a few interesting hands soon, but I can see what Bruno is talking about when he says he's running over tables.

One of the funny benefits to this style - three people have called me down in the past two days, but were unable to beat Ace-high; just amazing :)

Making a hard fold...

Texas Hold'em $1-$1 NL (Real Money), #1,012,830,277
Table Irving, 17 Sep 2006 6:50 AM ET
Seat 1: AAAHHHBBB ($180.50 in chips)
Seat 2: ieatp1gs ($99.90 in chips)
Seat 3: Shibumi7126 ($105 in chips)
Seat 4: pokerfrelst ($17 in chips)
Seat 5: kingtiki ($122.45 in chips)
Seat 6: NewbieGirlie ($108 in chips)
Seat 10: 2ROYAL2ME ($124.80 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
2ROYAL2ME posts blind ($0.50), AAAHHHBBB posts blind ($1)

PRE-FLOP
ieatp1gs folds,
Shibumi7126 folds,
pokerfrelst folds,
kingtiki calls $1,
NewbieGirlie folds,
2ROYAL2ME calls $0.50,
AAAHHHBBB checks.

FLOP [board cards QD,4H,5C ]
2ROYAL2ME checks,
AAAHHHBBB checks,
kingtiki bets $2,
2ROYAL2ME folds,
AAAHHHBBB calls $2.

TURN [board cards QD,4H,5C,3H ]
AAAHHHBBB checks,
kingtiki bets $1,
AAAHHHBBB calls $1.

RIVER [board cards QD,4H,5C,3H,JS ]
AAAHHHBBB bets $4, kingtiki bets $30,
AAAHHHBBB folds.

SHOWDOWN
kingtiki wins $42.

This hand really had me confused. I slowplayed a set on a relatively disconnected board. Then made a small bluff sized value bet on the river. I wanted him to make a small raise. When he made a $30 raise into a $12 pot, the only hand I could even start to put him on was 67. My big thought here was that I have to be right more than 75% of the time to call. I realized recently that I was losing a lot of money calling "big raises" on the river. When I bluff, its often on the river, but really my hand looks like a slowplay - I cannot see someone trying to bluff in this spot or think their hand is good with KQ or AQ.

I made an awful call last night. Pocket QQ in position against one other player. Flop came Qc Tc 2h. This is the kind of flop that probably did not hit my opponent after I raised preflop and he checked the flop (and i have all the queens), so i checked. The turn was 9s. My opponent checked again, and now I figured I'd make a little more than a half a pot sized bet and either win the pot, or maybe my opponent would have some piece of the flop or a jack and might call. My opponent reraised all-in for 80xBB into a pot of like 10x BB. I thought and thought and thought. I put him either on KJ, TT, or 99. It seemed like KJ, but I just felt like I should just call for some stupid reason. I had top set and had 10 outs to fill up. I called, he showed KJ and it held up.

Moral of the story - there's rarely a reason to call 80 to win 90 - if I don't have the nuts I'm folding against most deepstacked opponents...

Chat Taunting?

I just had a very funny session over on Stars. On one particular table a pretty decent player was sitting two spots to my left. I picked up AcAh and raised - he reraised, so since I was out of position I reraised it up to about 30xBB (Just wanted to pick it up) and he smartly folds. About twenty minutes later I picked up another pair of aces on the same table (lucky me :P). I raise it up to 3xBB and again this guy comes over the top. I decided to try a funny idea I occassionally do if I think it can influence my opponents. I said, "STOP RERAISING ME!" and then pushed all-in. Instant call. He had queens and my hand held up for a nice double up. I have made similar comments before if I think I can earn extra money from a player who is unlikely to call if I sit silently.

I'm A Maniac

I've been mixing it up recently, you always hear the pros say - learn all the games, don't become a specialist - that's what im doing. I've always believed that my true strenght was limit poker and my bankroll has benefited from my recent expansion. I think I have limit hold'em down to a science because... well, it is a science. Its so much more calculated, it's about playing the odds. I don't multitable it like NL hold'em because it simply is not as profitable, people like to give away there stacks by putting moves on you in NL hold'em when you have the best of it - they do the same thing in limit but unfortunetly when you cap it they fold. Instead of multi-tabling, I play it at a higher limit - i'll play two tables of $10/$20 limit.

(note: I just folded Q/Q on the button to a UTG standard raise, some would call this crazy but I have 7,000 hands on the player and he has only raised preflop 35 times - he had kings, board came unders, how many $$ did data mining just save me?)

Anyway, i've been playing alot of 7 card stud also, 7 card stud 8 or better and Razz are really the only two games I need to work on at this point. My omaha is already pretty solid. It seems to me that people are really leaking serious cash in 7 card. It's the same problem as in hold'em, they play too loose, the difference between hold'em and stud is that the idea of playing tight has not been beaten into their head because of the 100 poker shows they have seen or the 10 2+2 books they have read. Not many people go thru the trouble of reading stud literature, the ones who have, you can pick them off immediatly, they are the ones who arent playing every 2nd pot and who steal blinds when the show a high card in position.

Anyway, thats what I have been doing, just in case someone was wondering where I have been. The reason I havent posted very much is because I've been really busy with life, I went to Montreal a couple of weeks ago to play in the WCG candian finals, i finished a disapointing 3rd monstly due to the fact that I have been playing poker and didnt practice at all. This week i moved back to school, so I had to get all setup and stuff so im now good to go, expect more content.

I guess I should probably explain the title of this post, I was playing two tables of $1/$2 NL Texas hold'em which is what I play when i'm not multitabling(every once and awhile I like to play real poker, not mechanical multi-tabling) and I asked one of the players who I have played a fair amount with what his poker tracker had me classified as, I wasen't really suprised to find out that it had me down as a maniac. That game plays so tight and you need to run it over... It also dosent hurt that I play LAG in almost every NL hold'em game anyway... I then asked him how much I had won - $1300. I guess being a maniac pays. :)

(Interesting hand that just occured as I was writting this up, I have rockets in middle position, two limpers so I make a bigger than standard raise, i bumb it up 6.5BBs, button calls, small blind calls, both limpers call - not what I expected, actually quite upset at this point because theres a high probability im gonna get cracked. Flop comes Qh/4h/Qc, it gets checked to me, the pot is sitting at about $14, i bet $10 - Button raises to $25, everyone else folds. What do you do?)

Poker Tracker

Been making sure to upload my hand histories for the past month or so. I'm still in the mouse category, but am in the +1.5 aggressiveness which is a good change.

I have a pretty decent database accumulating - about 60k of my hands.

I have a BB/100 of 1.27. Since I play 10 tables, thats nearly 13 BB/100 hands. I get in about 400 hands per hour. So thats about $52/hour, which when added to various site bonuses (usually around $50-100 per 6-8 hour session), is not too shabby at all. My monthly goal is currently $5k, and last month I made about $3K. If I could do $5k a month, thats a decent living - and it would allow me to pad my bankroll in hopes that I could eventually move up to the $1-2 or even $2-4 games.

I'd be interested to see other winning players stats - it does seem that aggression is a key component to winning - but lose/tight seems to be a matter of style more than anything else. I have noticed that the good players change gears when they see the table tightening up and playing "mouse" poker. (I do this too - I find that I can steal with any pocket pair, any ace, any decent king, and any medium+ suited connectors. As well as being able to semi-bluff and pick up a lot of pots with just about any decent draw).

I have also noticed that these same good players will tighten up when there are lots of action players willing to give away their whole stacks with top pair. One particular player has really impressed me and I constantly find him sitting at the tables with 2-3X the buy-ins; he does this perfectly. Sometimes hes a mouse - sometimes he's a maniac. I'm trying to get used to playing a lot more aggressively when the games call for it. The key is being aggressive regardless of how the table is behaving BUT just changing starting hand reqs - and betting decisions based on exploiting opponents' weaknesses.

Losing my way...

Over the past few days I have come to a realization - selected aggression is winning poker. I do think that playing passively has its place - in situations where you can get free cards, trap, or confuse your opponent, BUT overwhelmingly its more important to be aggressive.

I have reevaluated my game after a few losing sessions. What I have learned is that its not playing dominated hands that is the main flaw of bad players - its position. I noticed that the majority of my losses were coming from AK and AQ when I was out of position. Be it the blinds or the first positions, I was just throwing my money away with these hands.

The clear most important part of NL Texas Hold'em is position. After having just completed one of the best poker sessions I have ever had, I have relearned that aggresssion + position = INSANE capabilities. I have kept my super tight strategy for the most part except that I have removed AKo and AQ from my early position hands. In addition I no longer call with these hands in middle position. I always raise when I enter the pot - if its with pocket 88s in first position or QJs in late position. AND I only ever call pre-flop if I have AKs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, or 88. AND these are only if I'm trying to trap/outflop my opponents. Generally, I reraise with the majority of these hands preflop.

I like this new strategy because it gets me into big pots when I have strong hands AND am in position. Also, it allows me to make one of my new favorite plays - the squeeze. By reraising 3x a raisers raise I often win the pot right there, something I like doing with AK for example.

I have also added JTs and T9s to my preflop raising hands. Occassionally I'll raise with these hands in early position - because I play so tight its impossible to put me on the hand I have and if I flop a lot of different hands I can proceed aggressively.

My out of position hands led me to consider the value of passive play. When you are out of position you can lose a lot of money with continuation bets - but this is because you are out of position, not because you are playing aggressively. Its good to make continuation bets - but in position. I cannot emphasize the importance of this enough. Every good player says it over and over - however greatly you value position, you cannot possibly value it as much as it is worth. Rather than adopting a passive style, I think its far better to look for situations to avoid playing out of position AND for situations to play while in position. I'm back to raise or fold poker and am loving it. :) Nothing beats playing 10 tables of terrified players...

---

I also have made a major effort to place my opponents on a hand - each and every hand I play to the flop. I made some tough folds and some great calls this past session. I think this skill seperates good from great players - and I want to get as good as possible at it.

---

One thing that is interesting, is that loose players can really get creamed by me now. By playing them in position and raising/reraising them pre/post flop you can really screw them up. A particular LAG player was getting completely destroyed by me in this last session. Since I only call with MADE hands in position, I feel more confident against these players who will raise with junk. One thing I noticed about this particular player was that he overbet on flops when he made continuation bets (he bet a full pot sized bet). In position I would call him with drawing hands or overpairs/sets in these spots and if he checked the turn I could bet half the pot and pick it up OR hit my draw. I also noticed that if he was was willing to bet a pot sized bet on the river with missed draws. I picked up two bluffs from him when flushes missed - big pots too. :)

One interesting hand that occurred tonight with this player was one of my biggest winners...

I had AsAc, and had raised 3x BB and vilian had reraised me preflop in the BB to 10x BB. I had position, so I smooth called. The flop came KcQs2s. I figured he probably had a strong hand here like a set of kings or queens, so when he bet nearly 2/3 the pot I just called, I had the ace of spades and figured there were a lot of cards that would give me a good draw or the best hand, as well as additional information about my opponent's hand on the turn. I also thought that he could have a hand like AK - this player was willing to put his money in with almost any two cards (but it seems unlikely to reraise me, the tightest player at the table, with nothing). The turn was another spade, the 6. I now liked my hand much more. If he had KK or QQ I had 11 outs to win, but oddly he only bet $10 here. I thought this meant that the flush scared him and I could raise him out, but also thought that he might call my reraise anyway with his set in hopes of filling up - at which point the pot would be so big he'd probably just call any sized bluff on the river. I decided I would rather call and see what happened on the river. It was the Ad. Now this was an interesting spot. I figured he could not put me on three aces and if he had a set below that he would want to call, but might be scared by the flushed board. I also did not put him on the flush due to the size of his bet on the flop and small one on the turn. Bascially, based on my read - I had the best hand and wanted to get paid off. I immediately recalled how he plays his bluffs - a pot sized bet on the river. I thought back throughout the hand quickly, could my hand look like an AK with the ace of spades. I called the flop, and then called the turn - it looked like I wanted to see a river card; I easily could see him thinking that I have a flush draw with top pair. If I had this hand, he would be very happy to call thinking that his 2nd or 3rd best set was good. I decided the best way to get paid off for the largest amount was to bet the pot - for $60. I felt if I moved all-in he might call, but there was also a chance he would think I was slow playing the flush and he'd fold. I also thought that if I bet a small amount he would figure me for the flush and would fold. My best bet was clearly the pot sized bluff bet. I bet the pot - he called instantly and showed KcKh for the second best hand. I feel like I really played this hand perfectly.

I know I hit a miracle river card, but getting paid off was clearly based on my read of the hand. I called his flop bet of about $13 and turn bet of $10 to win a pot of $180 - clearly with my 11 outs on the turn alone, this was completely worth it. This is a hand that shows the importance of putting lots of different pieces together to win the maximum amount possible.

Situations...

I have decided that I was overlooking a major component of my game when making decisions that I use all of the time.

For example, in a few previous posts I suggested that I nearly always like to check flops with AK or AQ style hands if I missed or make a hand. Or that I should bet a set on the flop every time. And so on.

The key in poker is that there is no absolute rules for correct play. I rewatched Phil Gordon's DVD recently and it reminded me - Poker is a game of situations, not hard and fast rules. Its critical to alter your play based on table conditions and the types of plays other players are making.

Recently I had a few bad nights where my style was not working. I never hit and hand and was paid off, so I slowly was leaking away money. After a few hours I was down a few hundred and realized that the problem was that players were not playing back at me AND they were playing very tight preflop. I decided to switch gears. I started raising with any ace, any king, any suited cards, and any pair when I was in middle position or later and was opening the pot. Whenever anyone reraised I would fold unless I had a good showdown hand. I was stealing the blinds two or three times every round. I also started betting more flops. People seemed willing to fold - so I obliged them. Soon I was back even and then even ahead. When a lot of ppl started playing back at me - I'd switch again! If people did not notice I had tightened up, it was very easy to push a flop and get paid off.

Now when I play - I sit down and play rock tight/passive for the first hour or so. If I notice that the players are playing tight and passively themselves, I switch gears and tear them apart. If they are playing aggressively - I continue to play sneaky tight and trap, trap, trap. This works much better. :) The key is mixing up play, but then also taking advantage of various situations. One such situation I was missing a lot was the two suited ragged flop. I was leading out preflop with AK and missing and checking the flop, after my opponent had checked. This really should be a bet most of the time. So now, I really only check these if I'm trapping or something about the hand suggests that I am behind...

One thing I like about playing a bit maniacal at times is that you can pull off the flop push play. Basically its the BOW strat in Phil Gordon's book. If I raised or reraised a person perflop, and a flop comes that I think makes me at least 35% to win (at least 9 outs) then I don't mind pushing the flop. I do this with great draws and sets. Usually both of which, in a check raise or reraise. The great thing is, there are plenty of hands that are beating you that will fold, and plenty of hands that you will usually beat that are behind. :)

A great example of this play I made last night. I had AhKh in middle position. A guy in early position limped, I raised 3.5x BB everyone folded to the limper who called. Flop came 8h5h2c. My opponent bet half the pot. I moved all in for 100x BB. My opponent called - showing Qs8c. At this point in the hand I have 15 outs! Any heart, any ace, and any king. With two cards to come, I am actually the favorite! I hit an ace on the turn and a heart on the river. About twenty hands later I flopped a set of tens on a board of AT2 two-suited. I checked, my opponent bet the pot. I moved all-in for 200x BB. My opponent called, showing AK. :)

I especially like making this play against half-buy in stacks. They don't have a ton of chips - so they are inclined to call a lot more in spots where they shouldn't. So If I have two overs with a flush or straight draw - I look to put all the money in on the flop. I am rarely an underdog when I make this play, so getting all the money in is huge +EV play. :)

80-90% of money won/lost comes from tilt?

In a live at the bike episode barry greinstein mentions that he believes about 80-90% of all money won or lost at the poker table is due to player's tilt. Whether they are winning or losing - suffering bad beats, getting cold decked, etc. I found this statement very insightful because nearly all of my "huge" loss days are the days where I just couldn't quit even though I was down. Or if not that, I was at least allowing my emotions to alter my play.

I was talking on gtalk earlier tonight with a fellow multitable poker player who PokerTracker highlighted as one of the top "mouse" players in my $1 no-limit games (these are what I have been playing for the past 3 weeks on the Poker Network affiliates). He asked the exact question - how do you handle tilt - if you have a bunch of bad beats in a row (he had suffered 15 during his current session).

What I have always done if I am losing is:

1) focus on playing my game. Tight, tight, tight!
2) leave all of my tables, get a drink, and resume in a few minutes - approaching the games as a brand new session.
3) pay closer attention to table selection.

My style is all about patience - I fold most hands preflop, and nearly all the rest on the flop. Its the occasional double up that makes me a winner, and it only takes a few in a session to be very profitable. Keeping this in focus helps me maintain my consistent play level. I think when it comes down to it, poker is more about not makng mistakes then making great plays...

Preflop aggression vs Post Flop aggression

Poker Tracker makes a distinction between both of these. And according to its auto-ranking I am still passive/passive. :(

What is interesting is that I adopted my new "passive" style after hearing something Mike Matasow said on "The Circuit." He said that poker isn't about aggression, its about trapping. This is how I feel. If you can get paid off more when you have the goods than losing a little in other spots is not a huge deal. Super aggressive players gain a similar type of advantage - they play so many hands aggressively that you get forced to pay them off when they have the nuts because you don't give them as much credit. I play super passive in some situations where I am not very strong, but I play exactly the same in these spots when I have nothing. In one of the poker DVDs I have Mike Caro mentions that one of his goals is to make checking on the flop "okay." I completely agree. It seems the new breed of player is completely aware that people make continuation bets. I've seen a pair of deuces call me down when I fire three bluffs to the river! What is not mentioned in as many books, is that good players tend to show the true strength of their hands on the turn. An astute player could notice that from me - but then I make the majority of my bluffs on the turn too.

Take a situation where you bet preflop in position with As Kc and one of the blinds calls. The board comes three rags, three different suits- 9s, 5h, 2d. He checks. Now, a lot of players would bet here. You have a relatively disconnected flop, unlikely to have hit anyone. Right? Well, I think checking is the correct play here. First, you allow yourself to hit a king or ace on the turn. Always a nice plus. But what is better is that if your opponent has a pocket pair, its very possible he was going for a check raise - or check call - and he may call you down with a pair of 66s (thinking that the flop probably missed you). Another benefit of checking here is that it allows scare cards to hit the turn. If any card ten or higher hits the board (or the board pairs) on the turn, you can make a pot sized bet and usually pick up the pot right there. What is useful also, is that if your opponent bets on the turn, you can make a decision based on additional information. If he bets a weak amount into a now flushing board, you can raise - if he bets a pot sized bet though and you did not improve you can fold. If he checks - you can be sure that he doesn't want the pot and you can bluff him out.

Lets say you play this hand exactly the same when you have pocket aces. Now what does your opponent do? Every time he sees you check the flop, he is terrified. You can now bluff the turn more easily - basically the check on the flop makes your ability to be aggressive better. And if people are not paying attention, your check when you are strong, looks weak. Some players will figure that you are bluffing on the turn and will pay you off. By trapping with a weak hand like aces, players will call with absolute garbage when they are drawing almost dead the whole hand.

After making a post last week, Bruno mentioned that because I played the hand SO passively I could not value bet the river - something I don't like doing with the medium strength hands anyway. He was absolutely right however. If you don't find out where you are in the hand sooner, than you cannot know if you should bet the river or not. By playing the turn more aggressively - I have found that about 50% of the time I can bet the river and about 1/3 of the time on a bluff. With this style I pick up nearly 100% of my bluffs - I think mainly because I play my strong hands exactly the same way (and I am looking like I am trapping).

Now that I feel that this is the optimal style in a good percentage of hands I am going to look more closely at the preflop reraise. I have nearly stopped doing it because the value of smooth calling with a strong hand often seems to outweigh the benefits of reraising and telegraphing that you have AA, KK, QQ, or AK. I think reraising with QQ is a bad idea most of the time. The only hands I like to reraise with are AA and KK, generally because if you do so you win the pot right away or on the flop (which is great if you are out of position). I have thought about reraising with a lot weaker hands occassionally possibly in the blinds to attempt to end the hand immediately. I guy reraised me in his small blind with AQ yesterday. That is a play I would generally be scared to make, but I may experiment with it.

Played Great and Lost Badly

Went to friends house to play a 10 person $20 deepstack freeze out. I'm getting pretty good cards but not hitting the flop, I raised with Queens in middle position only to get called by 4 players - flop comes A/7/4. It gets checked to me and I decide to take a stab at it, I get raised and instantly muck my hand. He shows A/4 for two pair.

I raise it up again pre-flop, this time from early position with A/K. I get the standard 3 callers, flop comes 10/8/3. I bet on the flop, and get one caller. I fire another bullet and take down a nice pot.

Nothing eventfull until we come to this hand. I'm dealth Kc/Qh in middle position, I raise it to 4xBB and get min re-raised by the button, I call. Flop comes Ac/Ah/Qc. I check knowing that he very well could have an ace. Turn is 5c. I check, he bets 1/4 of the pot. I call. River is Jc. So now I have the nut flush. I bet the pot. He instantly moves all-in. I think for about a minute and muck my hand. I figured that the only reasonable hands I can beat in this spot are A/K,K/K or the Tc, none of which he would push all in with, unless hes suicidal. I put him on A/Q, Q/Q or maybe even J/J. I fold my hand face up, and he shows A/A for flopped quads.

After than hand my stack is down to about 45% of our starting chips and two players have been eliminated which makes me very short, but the blinds arent too big so i'm not worried yet. I get Kd/10d on the button, I raise 5xxBB hopping to get the blinds and the two limpers but instead I get two callers. The flop comes Ad/10c/7d. It gets checked to me and I decide to take a free card. The turn is the Kc, giving me 2nd pair and the nut flush draw. Checked to me again and I again decide to take a look at a free card, the river is a beauty, the 9d. I have the stone cold nuts. They check it to me and I push all-in for about the size of the pot. They think and fold, probably should have tried a value bet. Oh well, I'm happy to pick up some chips.

I'm back on the button and this time I have K/Q. There is one limper so I try and take the pot with a 5xBB raise, blinds fold and the limper min raises me. I fold because I'm not ready to play for my entire stack on K/Q. The next hand I'm dealt A/K, I raise 5xBB and the blinds fold again and the same limper min-reraises me, I instantly push all-in and he instantly calls. Normally I would be scared by someone calling me so quickly but this player is a maniac so I still feel like I could have him dominated or in the worst case, be racing with him. He turns over A/J. Bingo.
Flop comes Q/9/7/J/4. I'm eliminated.

I think i'm playing fairly well so I decide to go down to the poker club even though it's pretty late. I get in the game right away, I go thru two orbits without playing a single hand except my BB, I just have had nothing of quality. I'm seeing alot of ace/rag and the ace is always the first card I look at, pretty frustrating. I get dealt A/10 in middle position and decide that my image is pretty good, so let's play a hand. I raise 6xBB(standard in this game) and get two callers, the flop comes Q/Q/7. It gets checked around. The turn is a 5. I check and one of the players bets 2/3 of the pot. I go into the tank and intentionally take a long time, trying to make it look like i'm acting. I flat call, river is some blank and I bet $50, the pot. He thinks for a bit then says, "I'll pay you off and flat calls me with Q/8". I muck.

The mistake in this hand is not putting him on the Q. I was positive that he either had a 7 of a middle pocket pair, bad read. If he didnt have the Q, it would have been an easy fold because I think I represented the Q perfectly, everyone though I had it.

Once again, I'm dealth A/10. I call a a 4xx raise on the button. 2 other players in the hand. The flop comes 4h/7h/10h. First player checks, 2nd players bets out $25 - I instantly push all my chips in for a raise of just under the size of the pot. I put him on a weak draw of maybe a low pair, I could just tell that he was unconfortable and din't really want to be playing the hand. He went into the tank for what seemed like forever and eventually called. Not what I was hoping for, he turned over 8h/8c for 2nd pair and a week flush draw. At this point, I'm not sure if my ace is a heart or not. I know its red but I didn't want to check because if I check my cards he can immidiatly rule out the possibility of a made flush. Unfortunetly, I was holding the Ad. Turn comes Qd, river comes Jh.

I decide to call it a night, sometimes you just aren't running well. I think for the most part I played very well but I guess those are the breaks. Like someone at the table said, Variance is a bitch.

Deciphering Poker Tracker Data

After looking at my Poker Tracker data I am having a hard time assessing what improvements I should make. Its auto-rating pegs me as a mouse, which is not all that shocking because I am still experimenting with the correct % to be betting on flops after raising preflop in various situations.

Apparently I play only 5% of my non-blind hands, which is extremely tight. So I will start to experiment raising with more hands on the button and cutoff in un-opened pots to try to raise that a bit.

I also see that the majority of my losses come from the blinds. I will need to focus on reducing such drastic losses in those positions. For example, on the button my wins are about 950.00 and on the BB my losses are about 830.00. I am wondering what other players' stats look like here.

I used to lose a lot of money with AKs, AK, AQs, and AQ - now that I check more flops, all of these hands are big winners - which I see as the main reason I have been so profitable lately.

My best hands are QQ and JJ, which is interesting because these hands are typically pegged as "difficult to play."

I would be curious what players think Poker Tracker points out. So I can focus on taking advantage of these features!

The worst play in tournament poker...

If the short stack or any stack for that matter pushes all in and two or more players call, you do not bet into a dry pot... ever. There is absolutly no value in doing so - the only time it is acceptable is if you have the absolute nuts. There is no value in better your marginal hand when the other players hand may improve and be the hand that knocks the player out.

This is common sense, I dont understand why people don't understand this simple concept. For example, I played in a Sit-n-Go with 6 friends yesterday, the buy-in was $20 and we started with huge stacks.

I play very tight knowning that when I do get hands, I will be payed off. We get down to the final three, my stack is about 10% smaller than the chip leader - the small stack pushes all in on the button, I call for about 20% of my stack with As/7s - the big stack pushes all in... such a ridiculous play, I have no choice but to fold. The big stack turns over 10d/9d and the short stack shows Ks/10c. The short stack triples up.

The worst play in poker. I finished in 2nd place. I'm still upset.

I Love Data Mining.

I started data mining party poker a few days ago and I now realize how much more money I could have been making all this time. I have quite the system running right now, when I'm at work or sleeping I have 12 $25 NL tables open on party poker with the help of a program called iWitness. iWitness makes sure that none of the tables ever have less than 8 players, if they ever drop bellow, it will close that table and open a new one with a full 10 players. I have another program running which observes the tables and creates hand histories. I then import all these hand histories into Pokertracker, run SixthSense which tells me which tables are the weakest based on my database and I begin to play.

I usually have statistics on 30% of the players at the $25 NL level at any givin time, which is not bad considering I have only been doing this for a week, with the help of www.hand-histories.com I will soon be able to sit at any $25 NL and never have to guess as to how some of the players play, in other words, $$$.

Last night, I only played one table because my registration code for Ace Hud has not come in yet and I didnt want to play tables unless the statistics were overlayed. It's ok tho because I had 11 other tables going for data mining purposes. Anyway, SixthSense picked out this really weak table and I completly crushed it. Its truely amazing how easy it is to beat players when you have a database on how they play - I know who will defend this blinds, who will try and steal blinds, how often people raise pre-flop, how often people cold call, how many hands they play, how often they go to showdown... how can I lose? Anyway, after about 1 hour I tripled my buy in to $75 at which point I left because the players were starting change, but not before I added a few of the worst from that table to my buddy list, give a little help to sixth sense.

I'll keep giving you guys updates, my little experiment is almost over, when I have all the kinks worked out I'll probably more back up to $50 NL.

p.s. My worst hand in terms of BB/100 is AKo - I'm gonna have to work on that, clearly a leak in my game.