Trial By Fire

I just finished a run of 250 "10+1, 10-handed" SnGs on Ultimate Bet. I tracked my results, taking note of place finished, and amount won. I've used this information to calculate average amount won, average place, etc.

Places:
Total 1sts: 33
2nds: 28
3rds: 39
4ths: 42
5ths: 29
6ths: 30
7ths: 22
8ths: 18
9ths: 6
10ths: 3

Average Place: 4.33
Average Won: $13

So out of the 250, I cashed in exactly 100 or 40%.

I played in sessions of 25, of these I won in 7/10 and lost in 3/10.

Throughout the experiment I finished 4th more than anything else, and I largely attribute this to marginal situations where I was jockeying for a cash. I tend to take more risks when there are four left because I want to win. I feel like its a waste to play for 3rd. That being said, there were more than a few times that I may have made mistakes in these situations and could have had more cashes if I was a bit more careful.

For example, I had a situation today where I had AQ and 4000 chips (15000 total chips in play). There was another player with 6000 and two shorter stacks, one with 2000 and one with 3000. I raised in first position and the 2000 chipped player in the SB moved in. The blinds were 100-200, I had raised to 500. So with the 300 in the blinds, plus my 500, plus his call (400) and raise (1500), there was 2700 in the pot. I had to call 1500 to win 2700. So I was getting a bit less then 2:1. Clearly 4 handed I have a monster. BUT with a almost guaranteed cash if I fold I probably should fold everything but AA, KK, QQ, and maybe AKs. Its good to play for 1st, but you shouldn't throw away a good situation. 2nd chip position with high blinds is a great situation to avoid CALLING big raises and reraises. You can simply wait to be the raiser. Especially if people are generally folding.

Of course I ended up losing the hand to TT. But regardless of the result, when I call there the best case is that I will win 75% of the time. So in the best case, 25% of the time I become a super short stack, and am going to get 4th a lot of the time. Why bother making a play here when you can just wait for someone else to take this sort of risk. Or even better, you can steal or bluff your way into a cash. Calling is just not the same as raising.

What I did find generally was that if I could get to three handed with a decent stack (even short, but not like 3xBB), I had a very strong chance of winning 2nd or 1st. SOOOO it is incrediby important to consider the table situation when 4-5 handed, not in terms of getting the most chips right now, but instead in terms of placing yourself in a place where you can expect to cash those spots a high percentage of the time.

Basically, I tend to play more aggressively if I have the smallest stack - once I pass the other shortest stack I will play a bit tighter. I'm still trying to accumulate chips, but I'm no longer playing hyper aggressively. By hyper aggressively, I mean I will raise or push all-in any time I'm first to the pot and I don't have a terrible hand. The main thing I have noticed is that you get a stigma as the short stack, people are more willing to call that player than any other. So you want make every effort to not be the shortest for as much of the tournament as possible. AND you want your opponents to be the shortest stack when there are fewer players for a greater proportion of the time. This makes it less likely that you will get called, and more likely they will be. Logically, it gives you a smaller chance of going broke (something that has a chance of happening every time you go allin and are called).

Once you are one of the average stacks you still should open up hand requirements, but avoid playing against players who like to call. When you are stealing, you don't want to play too many flops. Even more, avoid players who like to constantly reraise all-in. If you have a really strong hand it might be worth it to raise a bit less than you might normally - you might tempt a reraiser to take a shot when you are willing to call them (AA, KK, QQ, AKs, etc.).

I highly recommend doing Matt's limpin play a lot in the SB when you are average stacked. Its a great way to stay even and grow your stack without taking much of a risk.

When you get a big lead, I tend to play tight, but concentrate on stealing to keep my stack the same size against average/smaller stacked players. When I can see flops cheaply - limping, I like to do that with a lot of hands. I then generally bluff at scare cards a lot. Aces are great cards to lead out at, if you have anything resembling a hand or draw. Players rarely limp in with aces, so when you bet at ace high boards, people have jacks and tens in their hands and will generally fold.

I am going to play another 250 block of these 10+1s starting tonight. I tried playing 20+2s and the gameplay style is much, much harder. Everyone plays very tight. I cashed in 3 out of 10, and each one took much longer. I was the chip leader in all three of the ones I cashed in, and through unfortunate bad beats, I ended up getting all 3rds. Thats a pretty big loss, so I'm gonna get back to what works.