Unlucky Hand...

Last night the river was giving me a really hard time. I kept getting great hands - and then getting cracked by a luckbox on the river AFTER the money went in.

Yet there was one hand that I played questionably and I would be curious to know how others would play it...

I had TcTs in late position. An early position player raised to 4x BB (a larger than normal raise usually suggests a premium hand). I have position, so I opt to call and hope to outflop my opponent. The flop comes Th, 8c, 2d. The perfect flop has arrived. I do not believe my opponent is the type of player to overplay top/overpairs. I decide to play this hand pretty slowly - I just call his pot sized bet on the flop. On the turn a Js hits. Board seems very safe so I again simply call his nearly pot sized bet - I plan on reraising him on the river, or betting if he checks. I'm thinking about a half pot sized bet will easily get called. The river comes the Kh. This is obviously a bad card for my hand. My opponent checks, what would you do?




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I thought about this for about 10 seconds and decided to bet. I decided it was possible my opponent had been bluffing with a hand like AK, or he could have AA, KK, or QQ. It didn't make sense for him to check on the river with AK - he finally made his hand, so thats out. But I thought it was very possible he had AA, at which point he might think I have KK and I just hit a set on the river; I still thought if he had AA he would call a bet. I then considered if he had QQ. The K would be a terrible card because if he wasn't beat before, what can he beat now? If he thought I had AA or KK I was already winning - and now what the heck can he beat? Lastly, and this was the worst scenario - he had KK. If he just got the second nuts its quite odd that he would check here. If he puts me on a set however, its a great check because he knows I almost have to bet. Figuring I have to value bet my hand, I bet $30 - about 1/3 the pot. My opponent raises to $75. Oops! What have I done! I decide that I'm getting nearly 5:1 and have to call. My opponent shows KcKs for top set. Ugh!

So was it terribly dumb to bet middle set on this board? I think this might be a case for a conservative play (checking on the river) because the only hand that will call is AA and the rest of the time I am going to be reraised and pretty much forced to call based on the chance my opponent is playing AA or AK strangely. I have been thinking a lot about this hand, and it seems like at the river my hand is just a medium strength hand. Generally speaking if I think my opponent might be very strong I never bet medium strength hands on the river. Another lesson learned. :)