Lately I have been making a major effort to give less importance to my cards and more to my opponents. My basic goal is to get them to believe they are beat when they aren't and that they are ahead when they are far from it. How do I do it? I tell a believeable story.
Think about a situation where you raise preflop with a hand like AcKd in middle position. The button and one of the blinds calls. The flop comes 9h Js 4h. Now a lot of people wonder - should I continuation bet here? What I have started to figure out is that betting out here is not a very good idea. Here's my thinking:
First, what types of hands are my opponents likely to have - here they likely called with middle suited/connected cards or pocket pairs. Clearly the 9 and J are bad cards because they fit into both of these categories. The hearts are also bad because I have no hearts and suited hands could quite possibly equal two hearts.
Second, what types of hands do my opponents put me on - of course I could have a big pair, but my opponents are going to 90% of the time put me on exactly what I have - AK. (If I did have a big pair, I'd want to bet about 1/2 the pot; enough to see if my opponents hit the flop hard, but not so much that I'm committing a significant amount of chips with just one pair.)
Third, what do I want to accomplish by betting - if I did bet I would want my opponents to fold. I don't have a hand and it would be a complete bluff in this instance.
So what are my options in this situation? I try to think for reasons to bet first - so why should I bet here? Not a ton of reasons other than there are 9BBs out there and I wouldn't mind adding them to my stack. If I bet my opponents will think one of a two things:
1) I have an overpair, if they think this and are strong (a set or a huge draw) they will raise, if they have nothing they will fold (this is what I want)
2) I have AK, if they think this and are strong (a set or a huge draw) they may raise or call (and let me hang myself if I catch up or decide to bet again on the turn), if they have nothing again they might fold - but quite a few of them may just raise with a decent hand (like a small pocket pair or a decent draw)
If I do bet I would want to bet around 1/2 the pot. If I win 1/3 of my bluff attempts this would be a break even play. Its questionable in this situation if I would win even that often.
Another consideration I have in this hand though, is that if I bet, am called, AND miss again on the turn - now what? If I check/fold I've lost 7.5BBs, if I bet again I could be being trapped or bluffed out - losing chips with no hand.
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So in this situation I am much more inclined to check the flop. I think this is more believeable to most players because with AK, you missed, and they are most likely to assume that is what you have. You are also out of position - every dollar you put in this hand you will be doing so with less information than your opponents. If your opponents go crazy and bet/raise you won't know yet. This dangerous board will likely be bet if someone hit because they will be afraid of all of the drawing potential.
In addition, look at the turn card if your opponents checked the flop. If its an Ace, King, Queen, or even Jack it is much more believeable for you to bet. You could have a lot of hands that hit those cards - and would bet. If any non-scary card hits (non heart, ten, or eight) you can also bet because your opponents have shown they don't want the pot. And if you occassionally check when you hit flops - your check may have looked like a trap that you were trying to check-raise on the flop. I am inclined to bet a little more on this bluff than a flop bluff because your opponents don't like their hands enough to bet on that scary board - they sure won't want to call a 3/4 pot sized turn bet!
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This whole discussion is really just about the idea that your cards are not really important in this situation. That is the difference in my play now. Its not about my cards unless we get to showdown. So, if I can convince my opponents to just fold and see the next hand in situations where they seem to be unhappy with their holdings - and escape throwing money into pots where my opponents love their hand - I can make a TON of money at poker. :D
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4 comments:
Matters how many opponents and what I've seen from them in the past. Generally, I don't let the number of players affect me if I'm in position and have been checked to 2x. However, more than 5 opponents = bad spot to bluff. Generally, what I do in those spots is bet a hand that may or may not win showdown on the river.
So let's say I am in late position with a hand like Ts8s. If its checked to me on the river and I have a pair of 8s or a pair of Ts, I very often bet. Yes, I might win the showdown and yes, my opponents may call with hands that beat me occassionally - BUT overall players are more likely to fold marginal hands here and just see the next hand. They think, "the pot is small - not worth it, I'll just fold." This is what you want. I cannot tell you the amount of times I've made this bet and then been shown a hand that beat me...
I think the number of players in the pot is the most important thing when making the decision to bet or check.
Heads-up, if its checked to me - I bet, unless I have strong reason to believe that i'm being trapped. It's not a bad thing that players put you A/K everytime, they can win small pots but when you actually have a strong hand, you will win a big pot. Another problem with checking mediocre hands in position is that often your opponent will come out with a bet on the turn and you have essentially given up the pot because its almost impossible to justify calling... even if you hit your hand on the turn this is often an idication that the other player was check-raising you and you still might not be good... In that scenario, you have set yourself up to lose a big pot because you did not bet the flop and determine how strong his holding was.
I will admit that I can be trapped(which can be said about alot of top players, not that I consider myself a top player) but I think in the long run, betting on that flop is +EV.
Multi-way pots are different story, especially if your in the middle. As a rule, I never bluff if there are more than three players in the pot.
I agree bruno. But you also have to remember that most of the time pots will be multiway, simply never bluffing in these situations seems like a mistake to me too. :D
Yeah, I agree that there are spots that warant bluffing in multiway pots but i think that more situational and I cant be bothered to put my ideas on that in words.
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