Making a hard fold...

Texas Hold'em $1-$1 NL (Real Money), #1,012,830,277
Table Irving, 17 Sep 2006 6:50 AM ET
Seat 1: AAAHHHBBB ($180.50 in chips)
Seat 2: ieatp1gs ($99.90 in chips)
Seat 3: Shibumi7126 ($105 in chips)
Seat 4: pokerfrelst ($17 in chips)
Seat 5: kingtiki ($122.45 in chips)
Seat 6: NewbieGirlie ($108 in chips)
Seat 10: 2ROYAL2ME ($124.80 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
2ROYAL2ME posts blind ($0.50), AAAHHHBBB posts blind ($1)

PRE-FLOP
ieatp1gs folds,
Shibumi7126 folds,
pokerfrelst folds,
kingtiki calls $1,
NewbieGirlie folds,
2ROYAL2ME calls $0.50,
AAAHHHBBB checks.

FLOP [board cards QD,4H,5C ]
2ROYAL2ME checks,
AAAHHHBBB checks,
kingtiki bets $2,
2ROYAL2ME folds,
AAAHHHBBB calls $2.

TURN [board cards QD,4H,5C,3H ]
AAAHHHBBB checks,
kingtiki bets $1,
AAAHHHBBB calls $1.

RIVER [board cards QD,4H,5C,3H,JS ]
AAAHHHBBB bets $4, kingtiki bets $30,
AAAHHHBBB folds.

SHOWDOWN
kingtiki wins $42.

This hand really had me confused. I slowplayed a set on a relatively disconnected board. Then made a small bluff sized value bet on the river. I wanted him to make a small raise. When he made a $30 raise into a $12 pot, the only hand I could even start to put him on was 67. My big thought here was that I have to be right more than 75% of the time to call. I realized recently that I was losing a lot of money calling "big raises" on the river. When I bluff, its often on the river, but really my hand looks like a slowplay - I cannot see someone trying to bluff in this spot or think their hand is good with KQ or AQ.

I made an awful call last night. Pocket QQ in position against one other player. Flop came Qc Tc 2h. This is the kind of flop that probably did not hit my opponent after I raised preflop and he checked the flop (and i have all the queens), so i checked. The turn was 9s. My opponent checked again, and now I figured I'd make a little more than a half a pot sized bet and either win the pot, or maybe my opponent would have some piece of the flop or a jack and might call. My opponent reraised all-in for 80xBB into a pot of like 10x BB. I thought and thought and thought. I put him either on KJ, TT, or 99. It seemed like KJ, but I just felt like I should just call for some stupid reason. I had top set and had 10 outs to fill up. I called, he showed KJ and it held up.

Moral of the story - there's rarely a reason to call 80 to win 90 - if I don't have the nuts I'm folding against most deepstacked opponents...