Unlucky, but above average at SNGs

I played 50 sitngos today/yesterday. Yes, 50. I chose the 10+1 limit of NLHE for this experiment.

Here are my results:

2x 1st
6x 2nd
13x 3rd
6x 4th ---
23x 5th-10th ---

I spent $550 in buyins and won $540. Net -$10.

Now I will say that the high amount of thirds is largely due to getting unlucky many many times during the late stages of three handed play with big blinds. I could easily have had more 1sts/2nds had a few 80-90% hands gone my way, but what can you do.

My average finish is 4.5 and my average amount won is 11 (not sure how that worked out considering I'm down $10).

Anyway, I did get unlucky a lot, but then occassionally I'd get lucky myself so who knows if I can even factor that into my results. I also was stealing short and ran into aces in 4 SNGs in a row. Which equaled a 4/5 finish in all of those. My early knockouts usually happend because of huge coolers, (set over set) or because I got sucked out on (AA vs AQ with a Q high flop - he hits trips on the river after money is in).

My big problem with these overall is that I had an overall above average run in terms of results. BUT I still came up a loser. I do not see how you can be that proftiable playing these. The best expectation I think a player can have is an average finish of 4 and an average amount won of 12.5-14. With those sorts of results you could make about 75-150 per 50 SNGS, but even that seems like a lot of work for very little gain. I would imagine you could also consider moving up stakes to 30+3s or so. But even then. 50 SNGs at that level would be harder to win, and best case (and I mean like the best player in the world) would only win you 450.

Am I missing something? Is it much easier than I think? I cannot see how you can consistently have 1sts as opposed to 2nds and 3rds. Its usually a bit of a crap shoot at those late stages. Yes, you can play better than some opponents in these spots (usually those playing too tight). BUT that doesn't mean that you won't get unlucky a couple times and be out...

Anyway, I was pleased to see that only 3 times I finished less than 6th. And I finished in the money 21 times, which isn't all that terrible - Fischman said that the best player in the world could expect to cash in 40% of the SNGs he/she plays...

I'm gonna try to write up some strategy discussions about these tomorrow. I'm curious how you tend to handle the early/middle/late stages of SNGs and other various situations...

Sit+GO = WIN

I was kinda on a small break from playing ring games when a friend of mine asked me if I wanted to play a $10 sit-n-go on fulltilt... I ended up winning it for a prize of $45 and I have not stopped playing them since then...

It's hard for me to explain how bout some of these players are... I have been able to keep a ROI of 40%+, thats rediculous. If you want to see how well full tilt has been to me please sharkscope me - I'm Bro002 on fulltilt poker, they rate me as a shark!

I started by playing strictly $10 buy-in 9player tables but i've been doing so well that i've started moving up, i'm currently moving my way into the $20 level. I plan to keep going up and up until I hit the wall where it's no longer profitable to move up. I'm also starting to play some of the 18,45 and 90 sitngos.

It seems that most REALLY REALLY bad players want to play sit-n-goes... I though I would let you guys know :) I'm gonna start tackling specific topics in my next post, I know I have been slacking and my contecnt has been somewhat unorganized, i'll make an effort to improve.

Taking a break...

I have been either playing badly or running badly for about 2 weeks. Although I have stopped having large losing days - my winning days are pathetic. I'm at the same $600 I had wittled my poor UB account down to after logging about 100 hours of poker. That is not good. I'm sure I could be playing better - because you can always be doing that. But honeslty, I feel like game quality is becomming incredibly difficult. The games I was destroying have slowly transformed into games where 4-5 of the same solid players are sitting alongside me on every table. I largely blame the new law for this - there just aren't enough fish flooding the poker sites that their once were.

I've finally decided that I need to take a break from poker. Online poker has been my "job" for the past year. Its been very good to me - but I cannot have consistently poor results like I've been facing the past couple weeks if I'm going to make enough money to only play poker for a living. I've banked about 5k in the last 2 months and I figure that will last me at least 3 more. I'm going to apply to some local computer gaming companies in the meantime - and hopefully get a job at one of them.

I'll probably continue to play poker casually or online in my spare time. I'm going to leave my money on UB until its gone or its worth cashing out. But anyway, I'll continue to update this blog as things develop...

Telling a believeable story.

Lately I have been making a major effort to give less importance to my cards and more to my opponents. My basic goal is to get them to believe they are beat when they aren't and that they are ahead when they are far from it. How do I do it? I tell a believeable story.

Think about a situation where you raise preflop with a hand like AcKd in middle position. The button and one of the blinds calls. The flop comes 9h Js 4h. Now a lot of people wonder - should I continuation bet here? What I have started to figure out is that betting out here is not a very good idea. Here's my thinking:

First, what types of hands are my opponents likely to have - here they likely called with middle suited/connected cards or pocket pairs. Clearly the 9 and J are bad cards because they fit into both of these categories. The hearts are also bad because I have no hearts and suited hands could quite possibly equal two hearts.

Second, what types of hands do my opponents put me on - of course I could have a big pair, but my opponents are going to 90% of the time put me on exactly what I have - AK. (If I did have a big pair, I'd want to bet about 1/2 the pot; enough to see if my opponents hit the flop hard, but not so much that I'm committing a significant amount of chips with just one pair.)

Third, what do I want to accomplish by betting - if I did bet I would want my opponents to fold. I don't have a hand and it would be a complete bluff in this instance.

So what are my options in this situation? I try to think for reasons to bet first - so why should I bet here? Not a ton of reasons other than there are 9BBs out there and I wouldn't mind adding them to my stack. If I bet my opponents will think one of a two things:

1) I have an overpair, if they think this and are strong (a set or a huge draw) they will raise, if they have nothing they will fold (this is what I want)
2) I have AK, if they think this and are strong (a set or a huge draw) they may raise or call (and let me hang myself if I catch up or decide to bet again on the turn), if they have nothing again they might fold - but quite a few of them may just raise with a decent hand (like a small pocket pair or a decent draw)

If I do bet I would want to bet around 1/2 the pot. If I win 1/3 of my bluff attempts this would be a break even play. Its questionable in this situation if I would win even that often.

Another consideration I have in this hand though, is that if I bet, am called, AND miss again on the turn - now what? If I check/fold I've lost 7.5BBs, if I bet again I could be being trapped or bluffed out - losing chips with no hand.

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So in this situation I am much more inclined to check the flop. I think this is more believeable to most players because with AK, you missed, and they are most likely to assume that is what you have. You are also out of position - every dollar you put in this hand you will be doing so with less information than your opponents. If your opponents go crazy and bet/raise you won't know yet. This dangerous board will likely be bet if someone hit because they will be afraid of all of the drawing potential.

In addition, look at the turn card if your opponents checked the flop. If its an Ace, King, Queen, or even Jack it is much more believeable for you to bet. You could have a lot of hands that hit those cards - and would bet. If any non-scary card hits (non heart, ten, or eight) you can also bet because your opponents have shown they don't want the pot. And if you occassionally check when you hit flops - your check may have looked like a trap that you were trying to check-raise on the flop. I am inclined to bet a little more on this bluff than a flop bluff because your opponents don't like their hands enough to bet on that scary board - they sure won't want to call a 3/4 pot sized turn bet!

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This whole discussion is really just about the idea that your cards are not really important in this situation. That is the difference in my play now. Its not about my cards unless we get to showdown. So, if I can convince my opponents to just fold and see the next hand in situations where they seem to be unhappy with their holdings - and escape throwing money into pots where my opponents love their hand - I can make a TON of money at poker. :D

The difference between live and online

Playing 5 handed $1/$2 NL. We have been playing for about 6 hours and there is about $1,500 on the table. I have $300 behind.

I am in the small blind, there is a straddle to $4. All 3 players in front of me call, I raise to $15 - everyone calls(uncommon, this game plays fairly tight). Flop comes:

Ah 7h 4d

It gets checked to the big blind who bets $4 - Everyone calls without hesitation. Turn comes:

Ac

Small blind checks, I bet $40 - it's folded to the cutoff who calls, button and small blind fold. River comes:

8s

I check, and the cutoffs bets $80. I instantly call.

Who wins?

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I quickly turn over KK. I really think that this hand is interesting because calling $80 on the river with only a pair of kings would be very difficult to do online but because I was able to pick up a live tell, I had absolutly no problem calling a big bet on the river.

The other player shook my hand and mucked his, I don't believe he had anything at any point in this hand. I feel like he picked up that there was no way I had an ace and decided that he was going to take me off my hand on the river which in my opinion is great play unfortunetly he gave something away on the turn and there was no way I was folding.

Unlucky Hand...

Last night the river was giving me a really hard time. I kept getting great hands - and then getting cracked by a luckbox on the river AFTER the money went in.

Yet there was one hand that I played questionably and I would be curious to know how others would play it...

I had TcTs in late position. An early position player raised to 4x BB (a larger than normal raise usually suggests a premium hand). I have position, so I opt to call and hope to outflop my opponent. The flop comes Th, 8c, 2d. The perfect flop has arrived. I do not believe my opponent is the type of player to overplay top/overpairs. I decide to play this hand pretty slowly - I just call his pot sized bet on the flop. On the turn a Js hits. Board seems very safe so I again simply call his nearly pot sized bet - I plan on reraising him on the river, or betting if he checks. I'm thinking about a half pot sized bet will easily get called. The river comes the Kh. This is obviously a bad card for my hand. My opponent checks, what would you do?




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I thought about this for about 10 seconds and decided to bet. I decided it was possible my opponent had been bluffing with a hand like AK, or he could have AA, KK, or QQ. It didn't make sense for him to check on the river with AK - he finally made his hand, so thats out. But I thought it was very possible he had AA, at which point he might think I have KK and I just hit a set on the river; I still thought if he had AA he would call a bet. I then considered if he had QQ. The K would be a terrible card because if he wasn't beat before, what can he beat now? If he thought I had AA or KK I was already winning - and now what the heck can he beat? Lastly, and this was the worst scenario - he had KK. If he just got the second nuts its quite odd that he would check here. If he puts me on a set however, its a great check because he knows I almost have to bet. Figuring I have to value bet my hand, I bet $30 - about 1/3 the pot. My opponent raises to $75. Oops! What have I done! I decide that I'm getting nearly 5:1 and have to call. My opponent shows KcKs for top set. Ugh!

So was it terribly dumb to bet middle set on this board? I think this might be a case for a conservative play (checking on the river) because the only hand that will call is AA and the rest of the time I am going to be reraised and pretty much forced to call based on the chance my opponent is playing AA or AK strangely. I have been thinking a lot about this hand, and it seems like at the river my hand is just a medium strength hand. Generally speaking if I think my opponent might be very strong I never bet medium strength hands on the river. Another lesson learned. :)

Tight Aggressive is the nuts.

Playing a tight aggressive style is so much more fun than playing rock-tight aggressive - and more importantly, much more profitable.

Currently, I basically play any premium hands (AA-QQ, AKs-ATs, AK-AT), any pairs (22-JJ), any suited connectors (45s-KQs), and any one or two gapped suited connectors (46s-KJs). Whenever I'm first to the pot I raise. I usually raise 2x BB, but nearly as often I raise 3x BB (the smaller raise is usually made in early/middle position and the larger is made in late position). If another play has open-raised I will only call with pairs (99-AA) and AK; and often I will reraise with (AA, KK, and AK). If other players have limped in, sometimes I will raise them, sometimes I limp behind. This is not based on the strength of my hand (generally), but often is a factor of position. If its folded to me and I'm on the button I'll raise with just about any two cards to 3x BB (and I usually will do the same in the SB).

The main thing I my game that has changed is my post flop play. I had always read that you should generally bet about 2/3-3/4 the pot on the flop if the board was dangerous and about 1/2 the pot when its not. The problem is if you bet this much into a preflop raised pot then you are actually betting a lot. So if you have bottom pair and are semi-bluffing the flop you are risking a lot of chips.

For example, you raise to 3x BB with AhTh on the cutoff. The BB calls. The pot is 7xBB. The flop comes TcQh2c. You bet your standard 3/4 sized pot bet, about 5.5xBB.

If you bet this much and you are raised you pretty much are stuck folding. If you are called, the pot on the turn is very big and you are going to have to fire at least a 12xBB bet on the turn. Lastly, if you need to bluff the river - the two large flop/turn bets make the pot or even half pot sized river bet HUGE - 20xBB or even 40xBB. Clearly a different strategy is necessary.

Here's mine: basically I decided that a lot of the time players either hit a flop or they don't. Most look at top pair, and top pair only (or better). They won't call you with bottom pair - or even middle pair no matter how big you bet the flop. I basically have changed my continuation bet to a 1/3 pot sized bet nearly every time. If I flop the nuts, have a draw, have bottom or middle pair, or have top pair, and so on. I always bet 1/3 the pot. The idea is that you are setting yourself up for later streets AND this bet has a very decent shot at winning the pot immediately. I pick up tons of pots on the flop with flush/straight draws simply by leading out for $2 into a $5-6 pot. A nice bonus is that most players with top pair will simply call a bet here - not raise. And those that do often min raise or 3x raise. Notice in both spots you are getting decent odds to call and suck out. :) And the few times where your opponents make a huge raise on the flop you can use that information. If you are really weak you have lost very little and can fold. If you are really strong you can call or raise and maximize the value of your strong hand.

Basically, thinking like my opponents - if I bet 2/3 the pot what does that mean: it tends to mean I have a hand that is strong and vulnerable. If my opponents have a hand they know is stronger they will call/raise; weaker they fold; and draws they can decide how to play them based on the situation. In all three situations the 2/3 sized bet is much easier to read than a small bet. When I bet 2x BB, my opponents might put me on the nuts, a draw, top pair, middle pair, a bluff, etc. Its much more difficult for my opponents to make the correct decision if I bet less than if I bet more. They can call with draws - but they won't bet you out of your draws. They will raise with huge hands, but call with decent ones. The small bet is a way for you to learn a ton of information, but giving your opponent almost no information.

Then I tend to follow through on the turn in two different ways according to how my opponent reacted to the flop. If I think the turn scared my opponent, or I think my opponent is weak, I always make a larger 2/3-3/4 sized bet. If I think the card helped my opponent or if I think my opponent is strong I can check/fold or bet a small amount again and if they don't raise - see if the river helps me. If I have a huge draw or a huge hand and the turn made a lot of draws or created a situation where I think my opponent will likely like their hand more and I am strong (ie I have a set and I put my opponent on a big ace, the turn brings an ace OR the turn brings a blank and I think that my opponent really liked his hand on the flop), then I usually raise all-in.

Again, I keep the pot small on turn if I want to see the river, but I also give my opponent the opportunity to fold. I also make a few more aggressive plays on the turn because usually its when my opponents decide that I must not be bluffing this time and fold. I rarely ever check or call. If I check it tends to mean either I'm looking to check raise (very rare) or its because I figure that my opponent will not fold and there is no way for me to win (I've given up this hand).

The river is more of the same. But now if I need to pull off that big river bluff its big like 10x-20xBB not 20x-40xBB. Thats a huge difference. Its also great because by constantly firing all the time people really have no idea where I'm at. I often win many pots with hands like TT on Khigh boards.

The advantage of this style is that I give my opponents lots of opportunities to make mistakes - and because I only ever call (usually all-ins) based on correct mathematical situations I am not making too many mistakes myself. Math has a place in poker, but when you are the one doing the betting its much less significant than most people think. It doesn't matter that I bet 2x the BB instead of 5xBB to block flush draws if I am representing a pair of aces with my J8s. If I win the pot - who cares if sometimes that flush calls and even hits. I only invested 4-6x the BB, not a big fold, but all those small 6XBB pots that I do pick up add up...

More to come soon. :)

Overbetting and me!

Poker is an odd game. I played my uber tight strategy for nearly a year with relatively steady, but also pretty mediocre results. Bonuses made up about half of my winnings. Enter The Muck.

I started experimenting with new styles with the launch of this blog, spending time playing Super Loose Aggressive (maniac), semi-Loose Aggressive, Tight Aggressive, and even Tight Passive. Then I started messing around with tournaments as I came upon the terrible, but easily beatable satellite tourneys over at Party Poker. And right in the middle of the tourney experience, Matt and I made our way over to Vegas. This trip taught me a lot about my poker playing. First off, it reminded me that you don't need a hand to win the pot. For some reason I had sort of pushed this out of my mind and bluffed very rarely online. It also reminded me that exploiting your opponents' weaknesses is how you make money. Matt and I talked in length about identifying the few players at the table who we knew to be careful of AND those with no idea what they are doing...

So I come home from our trip and low and behold my stupid government has caused party poker - my source of income - to shut its doors to U.S. players. Ugh! But interestingly, some sites decided to embrace the stupid law and basically come out with a SCREW YOU GUYS attitude, ala Full Tilt. <3 <3 <3

So I cashed out the majority of my Party money into my bank account and deposited about 500 onto my full tilt account. So I started playing the same .5/1.00 games that I used to play in as a ring game player. OMG! I started tearing these games apart. I've trippled my initial deposit in less than 7 hours. I don't think that its just that the games are much easier than before due to the new influx of X-party poker players (although this is part of the reason for sure).

I think its mainly that the players on full tilt generally play SUPER tight preflop and on the flop. But interestingly, these players have a very hard time letting go of good hands after that point. So bascially my strategy has been. Play a semi-loose aggressive style. I play positional poker, raising either 2x, 3x, or 4x the BB based on position somewhat and varying my play too. I play big hands in early, and then will play any big suited cards or connectors in middle/late position. I rarely ever call. Then on the flop if I bet preflop I almost always bet about 1/3 of the pot if its checked to me. Players are incredibly willing to fold to this tiny bet - so I don't risk more. Its also worth noting that these players know basic math - they will call about 3/4 a pot sized bet with most drawing hands (making these bets less valuable). The interesting thing I've noticed is that if I have a hugely powerful hand and the turn doesn't help my opponents hand (based on what I've put them on), I usually just move all in. This is what I mean by overvaluing their big hands.

For example yesterday I had pocket aces. I bet my small continuation bet on the flop of a 8 high 2 suited board. My opponent called. A queen of clubs hit the turn putting two flush draws on the board. Now I know that my opponent didn't have a hand as strong as queens, or a lower set or he would have raised on the dangerous flop. So I just moved all-in. My opponent called with pocket tens and my hand held up, doubling me up. :)

I continually make plays like this - with sets, three of kind, straights, or flushes. You'd be surprised how many people will call a huge overbet with garbage. Sometimes I don't even move in, I'll just bet the pot after hitting my hand on the turn and checking it. It looks like a bluff to these players who seem to think they are better than they are. I've gotten called a very high % of the time.

Today I doubled through 7 times. SEVEN! I didn't even hit very many hands. But because I'm always betting people have no idea when I have a hand and when I don't. I have also frustrated or confused players into calling me with really odd holdings. I check raised all in on a Kd4d5c board with the AdTd and was called by K9! King freaking nine! I hit my ace on the turn, and the flush on the river. Later on I hit a set of kings on the turn (but the Kh also put a flush out there). My opponent bet, and knowing that he had to have exactly AA or QQ (for a set of queens) I moved in and he called for 10x the size of the pot with QQ! If I have the flush he's drawing at 10 outs - and of course as it was he was drawing to the single remaining queen... I love playing a bit crazy aggressive because people start making BAD plays against you, and thats what poker is about - making your opponents make the biggest mistakes possible!

Oh Canada!

So I need a Canadian address so I can keep playing on party poker. If there are any Brunos out there that would like to hook a poor American up that would be great. :P

A good player's advantage.

I recently wrote up a post about math and poker - basically voicing a frustration about continually getting my money in with the best hand and losing a great amount of the time. Bruno made a comment in that post reminding me what seperates good players from bad ones.

Bad players have to make decisions based on small mathematical margins - eg. if they have aces they move all-in, they will take every AK vs AQ spot they can find, and they will put all their money in with top pair.

Good players avoid ever getting their money ALL-IN without a huge mathematical edge - eg. if they have a set, flush, straight, or full house (Spots where they generally stand to win more than 90% of the time).

Along with Bruno's comments, I was reading through the book Pressure Poker and the author mentions that even if you get your money ALL-IN as a huge favorite twice, against the right hand by your opponent you will likley be eliminated. His example was you have AsAd the flop comes Ac5h6h. Your opponent moves ALL-IN with 7h8h. You will win the hand once about 2/3 of the time, but if you run into two of these types of situations you will win both only about 1/3 of the time. His point is simply that tournaments take luck to win because you will face these types of situations sometimes and even though you have an advantage you can easily lose.

Taking this concept I started to consider that getting ALL-IN with aces against an underpair. You start out as about an 82% favorite, but twice you are only about 67% to win, three times and you will win all three only about 55% of the time.

Basically, basing any sort of strategic situation on trying to get all the money in where you have an overpair to your opponent's overpair means that by the 3rd time you are about 50/50 to have lost one of the three 82% favorite races. This really is not a great spot to get your money in (when you have less chips than your opponent).

Now change the situation slightly. Lets say you raise 3-5X the BB. Your opponent calls. The flop comes T82. This is where being a good player can pay off. If you can figure out when you are beat with these flops, than you saved yourself from losing a big pot when you got unlucky. Similarly, if you are ahead and can get it ALL-IN at this point you are about 90% to win from here (a much better place to try to win the most chips possible).

Being a good player is less about winning big pots - and more about picking up small pots 95% of the time. Occassionally you will hit a big enough hand to warrant getting ALL-IN, but I think this should always be the exception not the rule.