Unlucky, but above average at SNGs

I played 50 sitngos today/yesterday. Yes, 50. I chose the 10+1 limit of NLHE for this experiment.

Here are my results:

2x 1st
6x 2nd
13x 3rd
6x 4th ---
23x 5th-10th ---

I spent $550 in buyins and won $540. Net -$10.

Now I will say that the high amount of thirds is largely due to getting unlucky many many times during the late stages of three handed play with big blinds. I could easily have had more 1sts/2nds had a few 80-90% hands gone my way, but what can you do.

My average finish is 4.5 and my average amount won is 11 (not sure how that worked out considering I'm down $10).

Anyway, I did get unlucky a lot, but then occassionally I'd get lucky myself so who knows if I can even factor that into my results. I also was stealing short and ran into aces in 4 SNGs in a row. Which equaled a 4/5 finish in all of those. My early knockouts usually happend because of huge coolers, (set over set) or because I got sucked out on (AA vs AQ with a Q high flop - he hits trips on the river after money is in).

My big problem with these overall is that I had an overall above average run in terms of results. BUT I still came up a loser. I do not see how you can be that proftiable playing these. The best expectation I think a player can have is an average finish of 4 and an average amount won of 12.5-14. With those sorts of results you could make about 75-150 per 50 SNGS, but even that seems like a lot of work for very little gain. I would imagine you could also consider moving up stakes to 30+3s or so. But even then. 50 SNGs at that level would be harder to win, and best case (and I mean like the best player in the world) would only win you 450.

Am I missing something? Is it much easier than I think? I cannot see how you can consistently have 1sts as opposed to 2nds and 3rds. Its usually a bit of a crap shoot at those late stages. Yes, you can play better than some opponents in these spots (usually those playing too tight). BUT that doesn't mean that you won't get unlucky a couple times and be out...

Anyway, I was pleased to see that only 3 times I finished less than 6th. And I finished in the money 21 times, which isn't all that terrible - Fischman said that the best player in the world could expect to cash in 40% of the SNGs he/she plays...

I'm gonna try to write up some strategy discussions about these tomorrow. I'm curious how you tend to handle the early/middle/late stages of SNGs and other various situations...

Sit+GO = WIN

I was kinda on a small break from playing ring games when a friend of mine asked me if I wanted to play a $10 sit-n-go on fulltilt... I ended up winning it for a prize of $45 and I have not stopped playing them since then...

It's hard for me to explain how bout some of these players are... I have been able to keep a ROI of 40%+, thats rediculous. If you want to see how well full tilt has been to me please sharkscope me - I'm Bro002 on fulltilt poker, they rate me as a shark!

I started by playing strictly $10 buy-in 9player tables but i've been doing so well that i've started moving up, i'm currently moving my way into the $20 level. I plan to keep going up and up until I hit the wall where it's no longer profitable to move up. I'm also starting to play some of the 18,45 and 90 sitngos.

It seems that most REALLY REALLY bad players want to play sit-n-goes... I though I would let you guys know :) I'm gonna start tackling specific topics in my next post, I know I have been slacking and my contecnt has been somewhat unorganized, i'll make an effort to improve.

Taking a break...

I have been either playing badly or running badly for about 2 weeks. Although I have stopped having large losing days - my winning days are pathetic. I'm at the same $600 I had wittled my poor UB account down to after logging about 100 hours of poker. That is not good. I'm sure I could be playing better - because you can always be doing that. But honeslty, I feel like game quality is becomming incredibly difficult. The games I was destroying have slowly transformed into games where 4-5 of the same solid players are sitting alongside me on every table. I largely blame the new law for this - there just aren't enough fish flooding the poker sites that their once were.

I've finally decided that I need to take a break from poker. Online poker has been my "job" for the past year. Its been very good to me - but I cannot have consistently poor results like I've been facing the past couple weeks if I'm going to make enough money to only play poker for a living. I've banked about 5k in the last 2 months and I figure that will last me at least 3 more. I'm going to apply to some local computer gaming companies in the meantime - and hopefully get a job at one of them.

I'll probably continue to play poker casually or online in my spare time. I'm going to leave my money on UB until its gone or its worth cashing out. But anyway, I'll continue to update this blog as things develop...

Telling a believeable story.

Lately I have been making a major effort to give less importance to my cards and more to my opponents. My basic goal is to get them to believe they are beat when they aren't and that they are ahead when they are far from it. How do I do it? I tell a believeable story.

Think about a situation where you raise preflop with a hand like AcKd in middle position. The button and one of the blinds calls. The flop comes 9h Js 4h. Now a lot of people wonder - should I continuation bet here? What I have started to figure out is that betting out here is not a very good idea. Here's my thinking:

First, what types of hands are my opponents likely to have - here they likely called with middle suited/connected cards or pocket pairs. Clearly the 9 and J are bad cards because they fit into both of these categories. The hearts are also bad because I have no hearts and suited hands could quite possibly equal two hearts.

Second, what types of hands do my opponents put me on - of course I could have a big pair, but my opponents are going to 90% of the time put me on exactly what I have - AK. (If I did have a big pair, I'd want to bet about 1/2 the pot; enough to see if my opponents hit the flop hard, but not so much that I'm committing a significant amount of chips with just one pair.)

Third, what do I want to accomplish by betting - if I did bet I would want my opponents to fold. I don't have a hand and it would be a complete bluff in this instance.

So what are my options in this situation? I try to think for reasons to bet first - so why should I bet here? Not a ton of reasons other than there are 9BBs out there and I wouldn't mind adding them to my stack. If I bet my opponents will think one of a two things:

1) I have an overpair, if they think this and are strong (a set or a huge draw) they will raise, if they have nothing they will fold (this is what I want)
2) I have AK, if they think this and are strong (a set or a huge draw) they may raise or call (and let me hang myself if I catch up or decide to bet again on the turn), if they have nothing again they might fold - but quite a few of them may just raise with a decent hand (like a small pocket pair or a decent draw)

If I do bet I would want to bet around 1/2 the pot. If I win 1/3 of my bluff attempts this would be a break even play. Its questionable in this situation if I would win even that often.

Another consideration I have in this hand though, is that if I bet, am called, AND miss again on the turn - now what? If I check/fold I've lost 7.5BBs, if I bet again I could be being trapped or bluffed out - losing chips with no hand.

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So in this situation I am much more inclined to check the flop. I think this is more believeable to most players because with AK, you missed, and they are most likely to assume that is what you have. You are also out of position - every dollar you put in this hand you will be doing so with less information than your opponents. If your opponents go crazy and bet/raise you won't know yet. This dangerous board will likely be bet if someone hit because they will be afraid of all of the drawing potential.

In addition, look at the turn card if your opponents checked the flop. If its an Ace, King, Queen, or even Jack it is much more believeable for you to bet. You could have a lot of hands that hit those cards - and would bet. If any non-scary card hits (non heart, ten, or eight) you can also bet because your opponents have shown they don't want the pot. And if you occassionally check when you hit flops - your check may have looked like a trap that you were trying to check-raise on the flop. I am inclined to bet a little more on this bluff than a flop bluff because your opponents don't like their hands enough to bet on that scary board - they sure won't want to call a 3/4 pot sized turn bet!

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This whole discussion is really just about the idea that your cards are not really important in this situation. That is the difference in my play now. Its not about my cards unless we get to showdown. So, if I can convince my opponents to just fold and see the next hand in situations where they seem to be unhappy with their holdings - and escape throwing money into pots where my opponents love their hand - I can make a TON of money at poker. :D