I have been developing a new strategy for beating NL cash games. I've started experimenting with buying in short stacked and I believe I have created a nearly unbeatable strategy for most NL cash full ring games. So here we go...
I buyin as short as possible. At a .50/1 no-limit table I buyin for $20 - 20 BBs. Basically the strategy involves manipulating a few weaknesses most opponents have.
1) If a deep stacked player raises and a short stack reraises they call too often with weaker hands than they should. (This tends to be because they do not give as much credit to short stacked players - considering them desperate. It also is due to the fact that even if they lose they reason its not a huge deal - they will only lose a few BBs in comparison to their deep stack.
2) If a player raises most opponents put them on AK - and generally underestimate their strength on flops without an Ace or King.
3) Most players bluff often, both preflop and after the flop.
4) Most players do not consider implied odds before deciding to play their hands preflop.
Basically short stack play removes a major barrier for the short stack and the deep stack. If a player flops something, they do not need to worry very much about being trapped or making a big laydown. From the short stack's perspective - playing hands that are very strong on most flops makes the most sense. From the deep stack's perspective - short stack players do not have enough chips that its a big deal if they lose. What this leads to, is a tendency for deep stacks to keep short stacks "honest" and look them up with top pair weak kicker or middle pair. This means that if a short stack player only plays very premium hands - and plays them overly aggressively, then they will beat most deep stack players on most flops. For example, if you only play AA, KK, QQ, AK then the vast majority of the time you will have the best hand after the flop, regardless of if you improve your hand or not.
Preflop I have noticed that players who are deep stacked will call large overbets made by short stacks with pretty terrible cards a lot of the time. The majority of these players will call with nearly all pairs, AK-AJ, and sometimes much, much worse, like 78s or A5s. I was actually called by a 43os yesterday. So to exploit this tendency I like to raise and reraise with any hand I think is a 50/50 or better. If I reraise it is always all-in if I have below my initial buyin amount. My favorite hands to do this with are JJ, QQ, and AK. So for example. A player raises in middle position to 3x BB. The button calls and I look down and find AcKs in the SB. I raise all-in for 20x BB. Now notice, any pair is a favorite to my hand, but then, any ace is an underdog, and many other hands are in terrible shape, like KQ or 67. In addition I have locked up both player's raises in the pot. This means that if they fold I win 7.5 BBs. This folding equity makes my play at least break even, against 50/50 hands - but then a certain percentage of the time (I have found this to depend on the opponents in the game) I am called by terrible hands and am as much as a 4:1 favorite (overpair vs underpair situations). So, I estimate that my expected value is nearly always positive when I make this play. I don't mind getting called, and I certainly don't mind picking up free money.
The second part of the strategy, is recognizing that if I have top pair or better I nearly always have the best hand. I can raise and reraise or call all-in with these hands. I also know that players won't give me credit for a hand when the flops do not contain an Ace or King. So I tend to bet my overpairs strongly regardless of the board texture, if I suspect my opponent may try to bluff me off my hand. I will bet just enough to communicate that I have enough left to fold. Players will raise me allin with 2nd pair, flush draws, straight draws, even ace-high. You would be surprised. On paired boards I nearly always bet my made hands. Players with pairs nearly always reraise me. Today I got it all in three seperate times in situations like this. Every time I had an overpair to the board and had my opponent drawing at 5 outs or less.
The important thing is that they are not considering the situation very clearly. They have very small implied odds against me because of my chip stack size. AND I always set myself up by betting more preflop so that I can make easier decisions on the flop. If I make a 4x BB raise or larger preflop. Than my 20x BB stack is pretty much committed if I get more than 2 callers.
For example, two players limp in early position and I have KhKd on the cutoff. I raise it to 4x BB. The BB calls and the two limpers call. There are 16.5 x BB in the pot. If I started with 20x BB preflop, I now have 16x BB left. Any flop without an ace is a simple all-in, unless I am sure that I could not possibly have the best hand (ie two players go all-in in front of me or something nutty). Basically, I only have enough chips to make a single play, so I don't have to worry about my opponents hitting a set. In addition, if a pot is heads up, my opponents are almost never getting the right odds to call me preflop in an attempt to hit a set or a straight or flush. (the chance to hit a set is 8.5 to 1, so if I raise to 3x BB my opponents will be unable to win the necessary 26X BB from me required to justify calling to hit it).
The the limp-reraise is my favorite play with this strategy preflop because hands like TT or JJ or AK which can be very difficult to play out of position on most flops can simply be put to an all-in preflop. I had one table where I limp reraised 4 times within an hour with big hands and was called by inferior hands every single time. AK vs AT, AK vs KQ, TT vs 55, JJ vs 88. The key here is that, as I said before, a lot of the time I am committed on flops, so if I'm gonna play these hands I'd rather just get it all in preflop, than have to make very difficult decisions after the flop - most of the time being all-in. But here, my decisions are not as cut and dry as with hands like AA or KK. Its not very likely that JJ is ahead on a AK2 board. or even a Q42 board. By limp reraising, I do sometimes see flops when it gets limped/checked around. But when this happens I just try to play "flop it or fold it" strategy. If I miss I just check fold and move on. It really sucks to raise with AK in early position, get three callers and see a 279 flop. I just avoid this completely by moving all-in preflop and forcing my opponents to make the mistakes.
I will add further updates as I think of some of the subtleties of the strategy...
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Oh Dear.
Due to some changes in the online poker industry, NETeller has decided to no longer process payments as of January 17 to customers within the United States.
Sunday, January 14, 2007
Vegas Day 2 - Part 1, Harrah's
Woke up around 11am and by 11:30 I was at Harrah's poker room. One of the cab drivers had told me that Harrah's had one of the juiciest $1/$2 NL games so I decided that it would be a good place to start the day.
When I arrived there was only one table going, lucky for me, it was pretty soft. It seemed like only a couple of the players had any real knowledge. I bought in for $300 and within a 1/2 hour I had lost 1/2 of it... Not much I could have really done about it, I was just missing flops with decent starting hands. I still had not seen AA or KK which was a little frustrating but I kept telling myself atleast when I did see them at this table I was going to make some money.
After 3 hours of play, I was stuck about $150 and had was $300 deep(I chip up anytime my stack drops below $280).
Hand #1
Im in the big blind and am dealth 4d/4h.
2 players limp and the button makes it $10. I call in the BB because the button has about $500 behind and both limpers also have me covered. Both limpers call.
Flop comes 5c/Jc/4c.
I flop my first set of the trip, unfortunetly it's on a solid board. Knowning that I will probably get action for a single big club, I bet $50 into $41. Both limpers fold and the button insta-calls.
Turn is the 5d.
Gin. I slow down a bit and bet $100. Button once again instacalls me. I din't think that the he was so bad that he would call me with only a flush draw here so I decided he must either have A/J with the Ac or preferably, A/5 with the Ac - there was also a posibility that he was holding J/J for a bigger boat but it really did not matter because im playing this hand to the felt.
River was a red 10.
I moved all in for the remaider of my chips, $140. He sighs and calls. He shows A/J with the Ac. Ship it.
Hand #2
I've managed to build my stack up to $800, im in for $450. I've been playing for 5 hours.
I'm dealth Ac/Qc on the button. There are two limpers in front of me so I make it $12 to go. The BB calls me and the two limpers fold.
Flop comes 4d/6c/3c.
The BB bests $25 and I raise to $60. He thinks for a few seconds and decided to call. I figure his range was 77-TT.
Turn was 4c.
Not the greatest club, but I was happy to see it anyway. This time the BB checked to me, I bet $100. He called. This made me very happy.
River 4s.
The worst card I could see. It kills my hand and probably won't help him fold. He checks and I check behind. He says "You have a big pair?" "Nope, I have a hopeless flush" and he erupts... he turns over 10/6o and does a victory lap around the table. "Man, I was sure you had a big pair when you bet the turn" to which someone else at the table replied "Then why did you call?"
I left Harrah's at around 5pm up $180 feeling disapointed at my inability to come out with a big win but I still haden't seen the real money making hands, could things we're going to happend, thats what I though anyway.
When I arrived there was only one table going, lucky for me, it was pretty soft. It seemed like only a couple of the players had any real knowledge. I bought in for $300 and within a 1/2 hour I had lost 1/2 of it... Not much I could have really done about it, I was just missing flops with decent starting hands. I still had not seen AA or KK which was a little frustrating but I kept telling myself atleast when I did see them at this table I was going to make some money.
After 3 hours of play, I was stuck about $150 and had was $300 deep(I chip up anytime my stack drops below $280).
Hand #1
Im in the big blind and am dealth 4d/4h.
2 players limp and the button makes it $10. I call in the BB because the button has about $500 behind and both limpers also have me covered. Both limpers call.
Flop comes 5c/Jc/4c.
I flop my first set of the trip, unfortunetly it's on a solid board. Knowning that I will probably get action for a single big club, I bet $50 into $41. Both limpers fold and the button insta-calls.
Turn is the 5d.
Gin. I slow down a bit and bet $100. Button once again instacalls me. I din't think that the he was so bad that he would call me with only a flush draw here so I decided he must either have A/J with the Ac or preferably, A/5 with the Ac - there was also a posibility that he was holding J/J for a bigger boat but it really did not matter because im playing this hand to the felt.
River was a red 10.
I moved all in for the remaider of my chips, $140. He sighs and calls. He shows A/J with the Ac. Ship it.
Hand #2
I've managed to build my stack up to $800, im in for $450. I've been playing for 5 hours.
I'm dealth Ac/Qc on the button. There are two limpers in front of me so I make it $12 to go. The BB calls me and the two limpers fold.
Flop comes 4d/6c/3c.
The BB bests $25 and I raise to $60. He thinks for a few seconds and decided to call. I figure his range was 77-TT.
Turn was 4c.
Not the greatest club, but I was happy to see it anyway. This time the BB checked to me, I bet $100. He called. This made me very happy.
River 4s.
The worst card I could see. It kills my hand and probably won't help him fold. He checks and I check behind. He says "You have a big pair?" "Nope, I have a hopeless flush" and he erupts... he turns over 10/6o and does a victory lap around the table. "Man, I was sure you had a big pair when you bet the turn" to which someone else at the table replied "Then why did you call?"
I left Harrah's at around 5pm up $180 feeling disapointed at my inability to come out with a big win but I still haden't seen the real money making hands, could things we're going to happend, thats what I though anyway.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Vegas Day 1
I got into vegas at about 12:30 local time, I was supposed to arrive at 11:45 however my flight got delayed in denver due to the cold, something about the plane being frozen. I was a little frustrated at the delay but when I found out that the plane was equipped with TVs for every passenger, all was well, the added purk allowed me to catch the new poker show - poker after dark, very entertaining.
When I arrived, I met up with Griffin at the airport, he had gotten in at about 11:45 - after the manditory greetings we hustled to get out of there, we we're both tired but still wanted to get in a short session. Unfortunetly there was a small problem, my bag was nowhere to be found... We ended up having to stay an extra hour at the airport. It seemed my bag had been left in Denver, they would send it to me in the morning... no big deal I guess. We decided to just get some food and head back to the hotel, better to be rested for the long session the next day.
We woke up at around 9am and headed over the convention center, I had agreed to help with the setup of the Sennheiser booth at CES(Consumer Electronics Converntion). It was pretty boring but they did feed us and give us access to open bar... so I can't really complain.
When I arrived at ceaser's poker room it was already 7:00, alot later that I had hoped to get there but I was still thrilled to finally get the chance to play some poker in vegas. I really liked that you could come in for as much as $500 in a $1/$2 game at ceaser's, I've always felt that I was at my best with a big stack in ring games(not so much tournaments). Anyway, I take a look at the stacks on the table and decide to buy in for $200. There we're a few large stacks at the table and I didn't want to put so much money at jeapordy with limited information. After I got a feel for the table, I put $300 more behind.
I was pretty card dead but I did manage to make the most of my opportunities.
Hand #1:
Im dealt AQo in the small blind.
Two players limp in and the most aggresive player at the table make its $12 to go from the cutoff. I decide that I probably have the best hand and raise to $35 strait. He quickly calls.
Flop comes 10/7/4 rainbow.
I check and the CO makes it $35. I think for awhile and flat call. I had decided that I was going to represent a big hand here, I felt that he was weak and that I could take this pot off on a later street.
Turn is a brick.
I check once again hoping that he will fire again, he does - $45 strait. Talk about a week bet, once again I think for awhile but this time I come over the top for $135 and he instantly mucks his hand. We both had another $350 behind so he would have needed Aces or Kings to stick around. Griffin at the other end of table says something along the lines of "Way to flop top set", I smile and say "you know me too well, i flopped then nuts". Later on I told him that It was a stone cold bluff, I still don't think he believes me.
Hand #2:
I'm dealth K/Qo in the small blind with $550 behind.
UTG comes in for $10 strait, 5 players call, not common, I decide to see a flop - I was not going to play with one pair but if I hit big I saw the pottential to win alot of money since many of the players had me covered.
Flop comes Jh/9c/8h.
I check hoping to get a free shot at my gutter, I realized that if a 10 hit I was going to crush anyone else holding a Q and maybe even get some money out of a 7. Everyone checks.
Turn 10s.
Gin. I lead out at the pot for $65 into $72. I wanted to set an expensive price if someone wanted to draw to the clubs, any other Q was going to pay me off no matter what I bet. I realized that this bet would probably scare off sevens but I was willing to give up a little in this spot. The button calls me after a little though.
Turn is a complete brick. At this point I had to make a decision, do I move all in and hope he calls me with a Queen or do I put more of a value bet in. Generally this would have been an easy push but the player at the end of the table was very loose and there was a possibility that he had called me with something other than the strait. I decided to make it $210 strait. He quickly called and I turned over my hand. He said "there's no way I could give you that hand - I had the Q" and he mucked his hand. At first I was upset because it seemed like I had missed some money but later griffin told me that he saw his hand and that he only had the 7. Ship it.
My stack got grinded away as I called with more marginal hands trying to stack some of the deeper players at the table buy I was unable to hit any flops. At 11am, I cashed out of the cash game so that I could sign up for the $70+10 tournament. The blind structure wasen't great but it wasen't completly attrocious either. You start with 2500 in chips and blinds start at 25/50 with 30 minute levels. Tournaments seemed to attract much worse players which easily made up for the luck factor. Unfortunely when we hit first break my stack was down to 1000 with blinds of 100/200 and 25 ante, did I mention that I was going to be UTG+1 on the next hand. I had decided that I was pushing it with any two. UTG limped and I was dealt 8/10o, I was very happy to put all my chips the button made the call and everyone else folded. He turned over 9/8s... I laughed out loud, I had him dominated. He missed and my stack was up to 2700... not bad!
Two hands later I was dealth 9c/4c, everyone folded and the small blind completed. Flop came Q/J/8 with two clubs, a very solid board for me. The small blind lead out for 600. One of the players who had folded accidently turned over the hand and it included a Q so I figure that she was probably only on a J. I pushed in. She though for what seemed like an hour before calling. she showed Q/10... not what expected, especially with all the time she took. I didnt improve and went back to the cash games.
I remained card dead, not seeing any premium hands. I finally decided that it was best to call it a night, I had been running on red bull/vodka/jagger for about an hour and it was 3:30am... When all was said and done I was up $100 in the cash game making me $20 for the night, nothing to be ashamed of considering what I had to work with.
When I arrived, I met up with Griffin at the airport, he had gotten in at about 11:45 - after the manditory greetings we hustled to get out of there, we we're both tired but still wanted to get in a short session. Unfortunetly there was a small problem, my bag was nowhere to be found... We ended up having to stay an extra hour at the airport. It seemed my bag had been left in Denver, they would send it to me in the morning... no big deal I guess. We decided to just get some food and head back to the hotel, better to be rested for the long session the next day.
We woke up at around 9am and headed over the convention center, I had agreed to help with the setup of the Sennheiser booth at CES(Consumer Electronics Converntion). It was pretty boring but they did feed us and give us access to open bar... so I can't really complain.
When I arrived at ceaser's poker room it was already 7:00, alot later that I had hoped to get there but I was still thrilled to finally get the chance to play some poker in vegas. I really liked that you could come in for as much as $500 in a $1/$2 game at ceaser's, I've always felt that I was at my best with a big stack in ring games(not so much tournaments). Anyway, I take a look at the stacks on the table and decide to buy in for $200. There we're a few large stacks at the table and I didn't want to put so much money at jeapordy with limited information. After I got a feel for the table, I put $300 more behind.
I was pretty card dead but I did manage to make the most of my opportunities.
Hand #1:
Im dealt AQo in the small blind.
Two players limp in and the most aggresive player at the table make its $12 to go from the cutoff. I decide that I probably have the best hand and raise to $35 strait. He quickly calls.
Flop comes 10/7/4 rainbow.
I check and the CO makes it $35. I think for awhile and flat call. I had decided that I was going to represent a big hand here, I felt that he was weak and that I could take this pot off on a later street.
Turn is a brick.
I check once again hoping that he will fire again, he does - $45 strait. Talk about a week bet, once again I think for awhile but this time I come over the top for $135 and he instantly mucks his hand. We both had another $350 behind so he would have needed Aces or Kings to stick around. Griffin at the other end of table says something along the lines of "Way to flop top set", I smile and say "you know me too well, i flopped then nuts". Later on I told him that It was a stone cold bluff, I still don't think he believes me.
Hand #2:
I'm dealth K/Qo in the small blind with $550 behind.
UTG comes in for $10 strait, 5 players call, not common, I decide to see a flop - I was not going to play with one pair but if I hit big I saw the pottential to win alot of money since many of the players had me covered.
Flop comes Jh/9c/8h.
I check hoping to get a free shot at my gutter, I realized that if a 10 hit I was going to crush anyone else holding a Q and maybe even get some money out of a 7. Everyone checks.
Turn 10s.
Gin. I lead out at the pot for $65 into $72. I wanted to set an expensive price if someone wanted to draw to the clubs, any other Q was going to pay me off no matter what I bet. I realized that this bet would probably scare off sevens but I was willing to give up a little in this spot. The button calls me after a little though.
Turn is a complete brick. At this point I had to make a decision, do I move all in and hope he calls me with a Queen or do I put more of a value bet in. Generally this would have been an easy push but the player at the end of the table was very loose and there was a possibility that he had called me with something other than the strait. I decided to make it $210 strait. He quickly called and I turned over my hand. He said "there's no way I could give you that hand - I had the Q" and he mucked his hand. At first I was upset because it seemed like I had missed some money but later griffin told me that he saw his hand and that he only had the 7. Ship it.
My stack got grinded away as I called with more marginal hands trying to stack some of the deeper players at the table buy I was unable to hit any flops. At 11am, I cashed out of the cash game so that I could sign up for the $70+10 tournament. The blind structure wasen't great but it wasen't completly attrocious either. You start with 2500 in chips and blinds start at 25/50 with 30 minute levels. Tournaments seemed to attract much worse players which easily made up for the luck factor. Unfortunely when we hit first break my stack was down to 1000 with blinds of 100/200 and 25 ante, did I mention that I was going to be UTG+1 on the next hand. I had decided that I was pushing it with any two. UTG limped and I was dealt 8/10o, I was very happy to put all my chips the button made the call and everyone else folded. He turned over 9/8s... I laughed out loud, I had him dominated. He missed and my stack was up to 2700... not bad!
Two hands later I was dealth 9c/4c, everyone folded and the small blind completed. Flop came Q/J/8 with two clubs, a very solid board for me. The small blind lead out for 600. One of the players who had folded accidently turned over the hand and it included a Q so I figure that she was probably only on a J. I pushed in. She though for what seemed like an hour before calling. she showed Q/10... not what expected, especially with all the time she took. I didnt improve and went back to the cash games.
I remained card dead, not seeing any premium hands. I finally decided that it was best to call it a night, I had been running on red bull/vodka/jagger for about an hour and it was 3:30am... When all was said and done I was up $100 in the cash game making me $20 for the night, nothing to be ashamed of considering what I had to work with.
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